Inflation constitutes a significant economic challenge for both citizens and policymakers. A crucial step towards mitigating inflationary pressures and enhancing purchasing power lies in identifying the underlying causes and mechanisms. This study investigates the impact of various factors on inflation dynamics in the Iranian economy, including adaptive and rational expectations, liquidity growth, demand shocks, exchange rate shocks, and government budget deficits. By examining these factors within the framework of established inflation theories, the study aims to inform more effective inflation control and management policies. Employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and utilizing time series data spanning 1973-2022, the study finds that exchange rate shocks, liquidity growth, and government budget deficits exert the most significant influence on inflation rates in the Iranian economy. Based on these findings, policy recommendations include: reforming foreign exchange policies, adjusting the exchange rate system, controlling liquidity growth, restructuring government finances, and implementing appropriate contractionary monetary and fiscal policies.

Introduction: Given the importance of milk both in the production sector (due to job creation and income generation for activists in this field) and in demand and consumption (due to its impact on public health, etc. ) one of the important goals of government policy in the agricultural sector can be to increase the supply and demand of milk. Materials and Methods: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic factors affecting milk supply in Iran based on the data collected from the provinces. The research model was estimated using the panel data approach in the form of generalized method of moments. Findings: According to the results of model estimation, milk supply in Iran is positively affected by the number of livestock and negatively affected by the cost of livestock inputs. Also, with a one-year break, milk prices and pasture area have a positive effect and meat prices have a negative effect on milk supply. Conclusion: Breeding of lactating cattle, price support, use of new animal husbandry technologies and management of livestock grazing are some of the proposed solutions to improve the milk supply in the country.

This research, which is based on theoretical and empirical findings of H.Hwang (1980), who formulated equilibrium hypothesis as stability of parameters in a reduced form equation, and Donald W.K. Andrews (1996), who introduced test statistics like sup W(.), sup LM(.) and sup LR(.) for parameter stability hypothesis testing against alternatives, appropriate test statistics for equilibrium hypothesis are derived. In the calculation of estimators and statistics GMM are used. Our findings confirm that, for our data from agricultural sector of Iran and the considered period of time (1961- 1996), null hypothesis is rejected by sup W(.) as well as CUSUM test. But the power of the latter in comparison with the former is considerable.

While a great number of researches have focused on identifying the factors affecting carbon emissions, the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on environmental quality has been less studied in the energy-environment literature. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate how economic policy uncertainty affects CO2 emission in the group of developing countries with the highest levels of pollution. In addition, the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions from renewable and non-renewable energy channels has been studied.  The results show that there is bidirectional causality between economic policy uncertainty and CO2 emissions. Then, a panel data model by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is estimated to address the endogeneity problem. We find that increase in economic policy uncertainty has led to higher CO2 emissions. Furthermore, our findings underscore that 1 percent increase in the consumption of renewable energy has led to decrease CO2 emissions by 0.026 percent. In contrast, the consumption of nonrenewable energy has led to increase in CO2 emissions by 0.98 percent. Also, the results show that increase in economic policy uncertainty has led to a reduction in non-renewable energy consumption and thus a reduction in CO2 emissions during the period 2004 to 2020.

The emergence of crime is one of the most important challenges as a phenomenon facing today's societies and all societies are confused and disturbed due to crime. Crime slows down the development path and threatens the security of the regions with the weakening of the indicators of social and human capital, the economy and the sovereignty of the people, thereby reducing the arrival of tourists. Tourism, in spite of the positive points of increasing income, creating employment and introducing culture to foreigners and etc., like any other phenomenon, has problems that can be threatened by social and familial values and mass extermination in societies. The success and sustained growth of tourism depends on the proper and consistent operation of several factors that are closely interlinked, one of the most important of which is the safety of tourists for tourism purposes. In this study, given the importance of the subject of crime and tourism, and the mutual opposition of these two variables, in two separate models using the panel data approach and generalized method of moments (GMM), for the time interval of 2005-2016 and data of provinces of the country were evaluated. First, using the principal component analysis method (PCA), the variable of the crime rate obtained from the combination of nine indicators of theft and then the research model was estimated. Accordingly, the results of the first model showed the positive impact of tourism on crime rates in the provinces of the country, and the results of the second model showed that by increasing the crime rate, tourism rate is decreased.

Management earnings forecast is one of the most important information resources in capital markets. The literature suggests managerial overconfidence is an effecting factors on the earnings forecasts’ accuracy. Because of users' relying to forecasted information, examination of the bias's effects on forecasts' accuracy is important. By using a new managerial overconfidence assessment model and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regression analysis, the paper examines this managerial bias’ s effect on management earnings forecasts’ error in the firms that have listed at Tehran Securities Exchange (TSE) during the period from year 2007 to year 2016. The results show Chief Executive Officers’ overconfidence has a significant positive effect on earnings forecasts’ error, how overconfident Chief Executive Officers overestimate earnings forecasted above than actual earnings. This finding is consistent with recent researches’ ones and suggests information's users should be aware of Chief Executive Officers' overconfidence's negative effects on reliability of managerial forecasted information.

The existence of a confirmed causal relationship in the economic literature between economic growth and banking sector stability justifies the importance of examining the factors affecting the fragility of the banking system. Due to its functional nature, the banking system is always exposed to various types of risks such as asymmetric information, bank runs, adverse selection, and moral hazards, which can change the functioning and stability of this system. Institutional quality is one of the indicators that has been considered by economic and banking scholars as a factor affecting the fragility of the banking system in recent economic studies. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the effects of the global governance index as an institutional indicator on the fragility of the Iranian banking system. For this purpose, consolidated data related to 17 banks active in the Tehran Bahadur Stock Exchange for the period 2008-2022 were collected and evaluated using the generalized moments of system (GMM-SYS) approach. The results obtained from the estimation of the generalized moments model (GMM) show that governance indicators play an effective role in reducing the level of non-performing loans (NPL) as a proxy for the fragility of the banking sector in Iran. The negative and significant coefficients of indicators such as the quality of laws and regulations, political stability, corruption control, and government effectiveness indicate that improvements in various dimensions of governance can lead to a reduction in structural risks and an increase in financial stability in the country's banking system.

Objective: According to studies, one of the main determinants of economic growth and development is social capital, which has different components. One of the main components of social capital is "trust", which is an essential aspect of economic and social relations. Trust means as a positive expectation that the other party will not act opportunistically in their speech, actions and decisions. The result of some researches shows the difference between countries in terms of their industrial structure depends more on the level of their social capital than on the level of their developmental level, i. e., the degree of trust of individuals in one society to another and their participation in the formation of civic groups and associations. Emphasizing the importance of the role of trust in economic growth and to answer the question of whether the trust index in developing countries affects economic growth in a similar way to developed countries, the main purpose of this study is to show the trust index on economic growth in the two-selected groups of developed and developing countries in the period 2009-2019. Methods: To achieve this goal in this study, the trust index was first extracted from the World Value Survey. Then, to investigate the relationship between trust and innovation with economic growth in two selected groups of developed and developing countries, the two-stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model has been used for dynamic panel data. Applying the GMM method has some advantages such as considering individual non homogeneous and more information, eliminating the biases in crosssectional regressions. For a more detailed study of these indicators in addition to other effective control variables that are considered as factors affecting the economic growth and development of countries, are also added to the regression equation. Delayed variables of GDP at real price, fixed capital formation, human development index, consumer inflation rate, innovation index, number of labor force, economic freedom index and trade openness index along with confidence index have been added to the model. The statistical population of the present study includes 26 developing countries including: Islamic Republic of Iran, Belarus, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Guatemala, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Serbia, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam and 25 developed countries including: Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, China, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States from 2009 to 2019 (statistics are available by year). These countries were grouped based on the Human Development Index so that countries with a human development index higher than 0/8 in the group of developed countries and less than 0/8 in the group of developing countries. Results: In both group of selected countries, the significance level of Sargan statistics is more than 0. 05. At the 95% confidence level, the validity of the tools used in the estimation cannot be denied. So, the null hypothesis that the instruments of the disturbance are not correlated cannot be rejected. Therefore, it can be concluded that the instrumental variables used for estimation have the necessary validity. Also, the results show that all explanatory variables have unit root and the Kau test indicates a long-term relationship between variables and economic growth. According to the results, in countries with low levels of development, the variables related to the physical relations of production mainly affect economic growth. Also, the effect of the trust index on the economic growth of these countries is negative. In developed countries, as expected, the impact of the trust index on economic growth is positive. And for one percent increase in trust index, economic growth increases by 0. 013 percent. The highest impact of the model variables on economic growth is related to the human development index, which will increase by 2. 45% for one percent growth of this economic growth index. The positive impact of the lag of economic growth in both groups of developed and developing countries indicates that economic growth in these countries is subject to stable and long-term macroeconomic policies and requires forward-looking planning. According to theoretical expectations, by increasing the rate of fixed capital formation, labor force and economic freedom will lead to more economic growth in developed countries. Conclusion: According to the results, the trust index in the selected developed countries has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, but in the selected developing countries at a significant level of 90% has a negative effect on economic growth. This result shows that the developed countries have advantages due to the high level of trust in these countries: first, in result of trust, the communication and the transfer of information is done easily. Secondly, facilitating the transfer of information takes place in technological environments, which is one of the effective ways of trust category to solve the problem of information deficiency category of organizational learning. Finally, the problem of free riding is improved through group activities. But the inverse relationship between trust and economic growth in the selected developing countries can have two main reasons. First, the level of trust in economic policies in these countries is very low. Second, the issue of data quality is trust in these countries. Distrust, which is a form of formal and informal institutions in the economy that has always caused fear of partnership and cooperation between people, and people prefer distrust to avoid losses and limit their economic activities to the circle of friends and Their acquaintances do. One of policies that could develop trust level in developing countries is to increase institutional trust by improving the transparency and integrity of institutions. Another and even more important policy is related to educational programs in such a way that the main emphasis is shifted to the team working of students and strengthens cooperation between new generations. These policies are able to increase social capital and consequently public trust.

governments worldwide are actively optimizing budget efficiency. This research aims to examine the relationship between government budget deficits and economic growth, emphasizing developed and developing countries, particularly the D8 group, during the period from 2010 to 2021, using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM). The results show that in developed and developing countries, especially the D8 group, the negative coefficient of the budget deficit on economic growth can be attributed to concerns such as the effect of congestion, high interest rates, or a decrease in trust in the economy due to financial imbalances and support for the neoclassical approach. In addition, there is an almost one-to-one positive effect between past economic growth and the current level of economic growth. However, this research helps to understand the sustainable impact of budget deficits on current economic conditions in developed and developing countries. Regarding the findings, policymakers should consider adopting contraptions that promote sustainable economic growth while exercising caution in budget deficit management.