River flow modeling has special importance in water resources management. Since the actual river flow data are often low and they correlate and depend yearly and monthly, making the data similar to historical data is so difficult and complex. In this study, 50 year data and Seasonal Auto Regressive Moving Average (SARMA) and Clayton and Frank Copulas which are the prediction and simulation methods of the river flow molding, were used to generate random flow data of Helmand River. Results show, SARMA model forecasts minimum river flow data very good, but the generated data hasn’t correlation of historical data and usually the maximum river flow is greater than real data. Otherwise, Copula preserved concordance of real data and make the data that are similar to real river flow. Also Root Mean Square Error of Copula method was 0.3 that is was less than SARMA method (0.4). Therefore Copulas are good methods for Helmand river flow modeling.

In this study, we tried to find out the morphological changes following the UVB-irradiation on these fungi and analyze the obtained results in molecular aspect. The following species of dermatophyte fungi (Trichophyton rubrum, Trichophyton mentagrophytes, Epidermophyton, floccosum and Microsporum canis) have been isolated from patients and selected for investigation in this project. For determining the possible molecular changes in dermatophytes due to UVB-irradiation (e.g. apoptosis feature), we next isolated high molecular weight DNA from non-irradiated as well as irradiated T. rubrum and compared them by gelelectrophoresis. The result of study indicated the inhibition of growth in irradiated colonies. The longer irradiation time caused slower rates of growth in these fungi. Besides, the changes in shape of colonies and pigmentation were observed in some cases. The microscopic studies of irradiated colonies indicate deformation of hyphae and changes in size and shape of macroconidia in all species. Besides, changes in number of microconidia in some species were determined. In the investigation of isolated DNAs from T. rubrum no differences in DNA banding patterns (apoptosis) was observed.

Ajabshir plain is one of the most important agricultural areas in East Azarbaijan province, which groundwater resources were applied more than half the water requirement of Agricultural productions in this plain. Continuous utilization of groundwater caused a decline of 5. 5 m from since 1984. Therefore, optimal and sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources in this plain is a management necessity. Consequently, modeling and prediction of the exploitation process could be accomplished by an appropriate technique. This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the groundwater level variations in Ajabshir plain with time series statistical models due to the ability of time series techniques to model and predict the behavior of temporal variation in water engineering. Also, in this study, the groundwater level decline was modeled for 16 years with 16 models. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) was recognized as the most appropriate pattern. Modeling, testing and prediction model was as follows: about 50% of the data for modeling (from 1984 to 2006), 25% for the test (from 2006 to 2017) and 25% (from 2017 to 2028) was used for prediction. Results showed that the average volume of groundwater drop in the 11th year of the forecast (2028) is equal to 26. 5×106 m3 under continued exploitation with the current conditions for agricultural production in the plain. Different saving scenarios, including 0, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 percent savings starting from 2018 were considered for optimal management of groundwater application. In the eleventh year, about ×106 m3 of groundwater will be saved with savings of only 10% from 2018.

Introduction: Along with other environmental factors, climatic conditions are among the most important factors affecting social, moral and cultural problems. People behave differently in different climates. Quetelet and Gurreydeveloped crime statistics in Franceandinvestigatedits relationship with physical environment. Thus, they studied the effects of geography and climatic conditions on human behavior, including criminal behavior. In Climate and Crime, Ellen J. Cohen argues that situational approaches, selected rationaltheories and routine activity theory all suggest that climate has a major impact on the rate of crimes and criminal behaviors. Based on their observations, Quetelet and Gurreyformulatedthethermic law of delinquencyin criminology. Based on statistical studies, they concluded that violent crimes are more frequent in hot seasons and hot regions, while in cold regions and cold seasons, more deceptive crimes such as crimes against property requiring thinking and imaginationoccurmore often. It should be noted that crime is a social phenomenon affected by various factors. Environmental conditions can also intensify the threat of human behaviors. The present study seeks to investigate the relationship between the climatic element of temperature and the occurrence of crime in Shiraz, Abadeh and Larestancounties of Fars province? Materials & Methods: The present study is applied in nature and purpose, while taking advantage of an analytical-descriptive method. 3 meteorological stations of Shiraz, Abadeh and Larestan were studied here. Investigated data included the seasonal average temperature and seasonal rate of crimes for the2008-2013 period. Seasonal rate of crimes including social corruption, theft, forgery, strife, mischief, intimidation and coercion, smuggling, drug-related crimes, murder, and suspicious death were investigated in Shiraz, Abadeh and Larestan, which have a meteorological station. Crime statistics were collected from the Prevention Police Department of Fars province Law Enforcement Force and statistics related to the climatic elements of temperature were obtained from Fars Meteorological Department. Different descriptive and inferential statistical methods were used to analyze the data and Pearson correlation coefficient test was used in inferential statistics. Data analysis in the present study included two stages. First, the seasonal and annual percentage of various crimes were studied in each of the mentioned cities. In the second stage, the correlation coefficient between the average temperature and the total (seasonal) number of crime occurrence were investigated. Discussion: Investigation of various crime occurrence in Shiraz, Abadeh and Larestancounties of Fars province revealed that in spring, strife and affray (47. 11), theft (23. 16) and social corruption (19. 16) were the most frequently committed crimes in Shiraz. However, intimidation and coercion (0. 32), smuggling (0. 24), forgery (0. 20) and murder (0. 05) had the lowest frequency in Shiraz during spring. In summer, strife and affray (47. 71), theft (24. 64) and social corruption (20. 95)are considered to be the most frequent crimes, while intimidation and reluctance (0. 33), smuggling (0. 23), forgery (0. 20) and murder (0. 03) arethe least frequent crimes, respectively. In autumn, strife and affray (44. 36), theft (27. 71) and social corruption (18. 24) were more common, whileintimidation and coercion (0. 33), smuggling (0. 27), forgery (0. 26) and murder (0. 04) had the lowest frequency. In winter, strife and affray (43. 92), theft (29. 99) and social corruption (16. 84) were the most frequently reported crimes, whileintimidation and coercion (0. 35), smuggling (1. 4), forgery (0. 24) and murder (0. 02) were the least frequently reported crimes. Findings indicate that during the 2008-2013 period, strife and affray (45. 86), theft (28/28) and social corruption (18. 84) were the most common crimesin Shiraz city, while smuggling (0. 43), intimidation and coercion (0. 33), forgery (0. 22) and murder (0. 03) were the least common crimes. Generally in the three counties, crimes against the person such as strife and affray, murder, mischief, intimidation and coercion were more frequently reported in warm seasons (spring and summer). However, crimes against property, such as theft, were more frequent in cold seasons (autumn and winter). Strife and affray(0. 95) in Shiraz have the highest correlation with the seasonal average temperature. There is a negative correlation between the crime of strife and affray and the seasonal average precipitation in Shiraz. The same relationship existsbetweenstrife and affray and the seasonal average relative humidity in Shiraz. In Larestan, drug-related crimes (-0. 97) have the highest negative correlation with the seasonal average temperature. In Abadeh city, social corruptions (0. 99) have the highest correlation with the seasonal average temperature. Conclusion: In total, crimes against the person, such as strife, murder, mischief, intimidation and coercion were more commonly reported in the warm seasons of the year (spring and summer) in the three counties on the whole and separately. However, crimes against property such as theft had a higher rate of occurrencein the cold seasons (autumn and winter). Therefore, as crimes against the personare more common in warm seasons and crimes against property are more frequent in cold seasons, it can be concluded that QueteletandGurrey’ s thermic law of delinquencyis in force in all the three specified counties. However, this law is not generalizable and it cannot be concluded that crimes against property occur more in cold regions and crimes against the person occurs more in warm regions of Fars province. In this respect, this law only applies to Larestan which is located in the warm region of the province.

Introduction Climate is one of the most effective factors on soil formation, evolution and degradation. It is include different parameters which mainly based on precipitation and temperature. In the recent years the effects of global warming and climate change has extremely enhanced. Climate change as an important phenomenon is effective on precipitation parameters including volume, intensity and concentration which categorized in the temporal and spatial variations. Quantifying the effects of climate change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. Land-based ecosystems are influenced by patterns of air temperature and precipitation, which include daily and seasonal changes along with humidity and wind, and the nature of the land surface. Global climate change already has observable effects on the environment. Regarding the importance and effectiveness of climate factor and climate changes during the time, it is essential to focus on climate changes on water behavior at different scales. Indeed, precipitation parameters interacting the soil parameters are influencing on runoff potential in the fields and watersheds. In this regard Rainfall-runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Universal soil loss equation (USLE) is the main common equation to predict soil loss, this equation consisting 5 factors which R-Factor (Rainfall erosivity factor) is one of the effective factors in this equation. Material and Methods Regarding the effect of climate on soil erosion processes therefore, monitoring of climate is really important. In this study in order to evaluate the climate changes based on time series, four climatological stations including, Ardal, Saman, Izeh, and Dehdez were selected. Using the statistical data of precipitation, calculation of eroding index was performed until 2017. The ACF (Auto Correlation Function) and PACF (Partial Auto Correlation Function) for precipitation data were prepared, afterwards the ADF test was performed at confidence level of 1, 5 and 10 percentage. Then the suitable parameters for p, r and q were selected and the SARIMA (Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average) model was provided. The statistical analyses were performed with Stata SE, Minitab 18 and SPSS 19. Moreover, the graphical trends of rainfall as an index of precipitation and the rainfall erosivity factor (R-Factor) were presented. Also, the spatial distribution of R-Factor (in the form of GIS-Maps) were provided including three separated maps based on real data, 5 year predicted and 10 year predicted data. So there was a possibility to monitor and compare the spatial distribution of R-Factor at different time periods. Then based on the area, the percentage of rainfall erosivity index was calculated for the study area based on the real data, 5 year predicted and 10 year predicted data. In addition, the statistical parameters including R-square, RMSE, P-value and so on were calculated for the best model (SAR12) regarding all climatological stations. Results and discussion Our results depicted that to present the trend of precipitation variations as erosive factor the ARIMA (0,0,1)×(1,1,1)12 was the best model. Also, the seasonal autoregressive moving average showed the variation of precipitation in the study area which located in the southwest of Iran. The results of modeling stated that reduction of precipitation for 5 and 10 year periods after 2017. According to amount of monthly simulated of precipitation, the amount of erodibility index was obtained in the area which illustrated the declining trend until 10 year. According to ADF test for all evaluated climatological stations the probability for Ardal was 0.34, for Dehdez was 0.425, for Saman was 0.345 and for Izeh was 0.177, therefore there was difference between climatological stations. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for SAR12 model revealed that the R-square for Ardal station was 0.492, for Dehdez was 0.716, for Saman was 0651 and for Izeh was 0.576. Moreover, approximately 37 % of area has very low rate of erodibility index without previous occurrence. Conclusion Our results clearly confirmed the importance of climate factors and climate change during the time. As results illustrated regarding the variations of precipitation the R-Factor changed. Moreover, climate change is effective on spatial variations of crop cover in the watersheds. Climate change is capable to alter the crop cover patterns in the watersheds and the changes in crop cover distribution and runoff could change the soil erosion potential. Generally, based on results has to focus on water resources conservation in the study area to preserve soil and water against erosive forces and try to improve the vegetation cover because of decreasing of precipitation. In order to manage the soil resources, we need to monitor the climate changes in the watersheds and try to enhance the vegetation covers in the critical parts on the fields.

Since supplemental UV-B radiation can provide a simple and economical alternative to increase phenolic compounds in plants, we evaluated the dynamic biological responses of Alo vera L. plants to different UV-B doses (10 and 30 kJ m − 2 − 1 day ). The experiment was performed on the basis of Completely Randomize Design with 4 independent replications. Under high light conditions (600 µ mol m − 2 − 1 s ), UV-B radiation at 30 kJ m − 2 − 1 day caused significant damaging effects in the Alo plants in terms of leaf biomass. This reduction of leaf biomass was coupled with lower values of photosynthetic performance index (PIabs) as well as higher levels of malondialdehyde (MDA). However, when plants were grown at 10 kJ, UV-B-induced increase of proline and soluble sugar content was detected in Alo leaves. In addition, plants treated with 10 kJ m − 2 − 1 day UVB dose manifested a significant phenol content enhancement compared to the control plants. Most importantly, a significant correlation was observwd between accumulation of leaf phenolic compound and their antioxidant potential, when UV-B radiation was applied at 10 kJ. Our data suggested that an improved accumulation of phenolic compounds could be achieved when UV-B radiation was applied at 10 kJ within 21 days. This can be used to apply UV-B radiations to improve the nutritional quality of Alo leaves by increasing accumulation of phenolic compounds, without affecting the efficiency of photosynthetic apparatus.

Background and Objectives: Nostoc species have gained much interest as a natural source of many secondary metabolites that have exhibited pharmacological properties. They synthesize UV-protective substances such as mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) or scytonemin to minimize the deleterious effects caused by UV radiation. In this research the effects of UVB radiation on increasing amount of UV-protective substances (scytonemin, OS-MAAS), and growth parameters such as photosynthetic pigments, protein and sugar content were studied in cyanobacteria Nostoc linckia. Methods: For this purpose, 14-day algal cultures were treated with UVB rays for 1, 2 and 3 hours per day for 5 days. After treatment, the growth rate according to fresh weight measurement and other biochemical parameters according to colorimetric methods were assayed. Data were analyzed by one-way analysis of variance, and the significance of the differences was estimated by Duncan’s multiple comparison tests. Findings: UVB treatment resulted in lower fresh weight of Nostoc algae. Algae exposure to 3 hours UVB, showed an increase in OS-MAAS content. The amount of scytonemin increased up to 3 times in 3 hours UVB treatment. The algae treated with UVB had more chlorophyll a and total carotenoid content but phycobiliproteins content reduced in this treatment. Total protein and total sugars were not affected by UVB treatment. Conclusion: The results showed that this UV treatment method, in addition to significantly enhancing the anti UV compounds of the algae, would not reduce the biomass.