Modeling and Analysis of Natural Gas Demand in Different Economic Sectors
(An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach)

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khadem fazeleh; ahmadi shadmehri mohammad taher; naji meydani ali akbar; pooya alireza

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2025 | Volume:21 | Issue:84 Page(s): 1-30

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Modeling and Analysis of Natural Gas Demand in Different Economic Sectors (An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach)

Author(s)

khadem fazeleh | ahmadi shadmehri mohammad taher | naji meydani ali akbar | pooya alireza | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Natural Gas Demand

economic sectors

Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model.

Abstract

This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the natural gas demand in six economic sectors, including household, agriculture, transportation, commercial, industrial, and power plants. The data used for this analysis spans during thr period of 2011 - 2022 and is derived from the national energy balance sheets.
The modeling results indicate that the price elasticity of demand in the estimated functions is very low, meaning that the gas demand in these sectors is not highly responsive or sensitive to price changes. One reason for the low price elasticity is the regulated pricing of natural gas in these sectors. Additionally, the low price, assuming other conditions remain constant, reduces the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations.
In most sectors, the elasticity of value-added and GDP surpasses other elasticities, highlighting that income has a more significant impact on natural gas demand. This effect is particularly pronounced in the industrial and power plant sectors. Therefore, the gas demand in these sectors is closely tied to the level of economic activity.

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