Demographic Dynamics and Population Projections in Iran: Analyzing Population Size and Age Structure up to 2040 Horizon

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

Torkashvand Moradabadi Mohammad; Irannejad Kolsoom

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF SOCIAL CONTINUITY AND CHANGE Year:2024 | Volume:3 | Issue:1 Page(s): 7-33

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

220

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

Demographic Dynamics and Population Projections in Iran: Analyzing Population Size and Age Structure up to 2040 Horizon

Author(s)

Torkashvand Moradabadi Mohammad | Irannejad Kolsoom | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Population size

Age composition

Demographic future

Aging population

Iran

Abstract

Background and aim: Understanding demographic characteristics, including the size and structure of a population, is foundational for strategic planning. This study aims to analyze historical shifts in Iran’s demographic composition and size, projecting these trends into the future. Data and method: Utilizing a secondary research approach, this study analyzed data from the 2016 General Population and Housing Census and annual vital events records from the Civil Registry Organization of Iran. Demographic methods were applied to assess past population changes and forecast future shifts. Findings: The findings reveal that Iran’s population growth has varied over time. Initially, the growth was modest, with a 2.1-fold increase from 1920 to 1940. The most significant surge occurred between 1970 and 1990. Under a scenario of rising fertility, the population is projected to reach 98 million by 2040. Conclusion: Iran’s population is aging, with an expected rise in the number and proportion of the elderly. To address the age composition of the population, it is necessary to increase the fertility rate through incentive policies and reduce the migration of young people. Regarding the size of the elderly population, there will be a need for special services such as social security, geriatric medicine, suitable recreation, appropriate housing, and overall, an elderly-friendly city. Key Message: The aging of Iran’s population is inevitable and accelerating. It is crucial to anticipate the future needs of the elderly and develop appropriate policies to address them effectively.

Multimedia

No record.

Cites