Sensitivity Analysis of the Affecting Parameters on the Urban Runoff Results in SWMM Model (Case Study: North Catchments of Tehran City)

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Badizadegan Reza; Khodashenas Saeid Reza; ESMAEILI KAZEM

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Journal: Modares Civil Engineering journal Year:2021 | Volume:21 | Issue:5 Page(s): 57-70

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Sensitivity Analysis of the Affecting Parameters on the Urban Runoff Results in SWMM Model (Case Study: North Catchments of Tehran City)

Author(s)

Badizadegan Reza | Khodashenas Saeid Reza | ESMAEILI KAZEM | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Sensitivity Analysis

Impervious Area Percentage

Sensitivity Index

North Catchments of Tehran City

Abstract

Awareness of the sensitivity of the output results of the simulation models to input parameters is very important for development and application of these models and leads to better understanding and better estimation of input parameters and reduces uncertainties of simulations. The aim of this study was the investigation of sensitivity of the output results of the SWMM rainfall-runoff model with the eight input parameters. Based on Sensitivity Analysis, Impervious Area Percentage (Imp%), N-Manning of impermeable areas (Nimp), Width equivalent (W) and slope (S0) of sub-basins had the greatest impact on the output results and the depth of depression storage (Dp) and N-manning of permeable areas (Np) were diagnosed as the least effective input parameters. Also, the effect of increasing four parameters, percentage of impermeable area (Imp%), equivalent width (W), slope (S0) of subbasins and SCS curve numbers (CN) on the output results of the model is incremental and the reaction of the output results to increasing other parameters such as Manning roughness coefficient (Nimp) and storage depth of impermeable (Dp) is degressive. On the other hand, based on the Sensitivity Index (I), it was determined that the sensitivity of peak flow, volume of runoff and depth of runoff to the percentage of impermeable area (Imp%), equivalent width (W) and SCS curve numbers (CN) in Mountain basins are greater than Urban basins. The reason can be considered as a higher percentage of mountainous basins (84%) than urban basins (16%) in this study. On the other hand, the results showed that 10% increasing of the impermeable areas (Imp%), 5% peak runoff flow rate, 7. 79% runoff volume and 5% runoff depth increase Also, 10% decreasing of the roughness coefficient of impermeable areas (Nimp), 4% of maximum runoff flow, 1. 7% of runoff volume and 3% of runoff depth at the outlet point of the catchment area increased. After determining the sensitivity of the input parameters, the SWMM model was calibrated with real data of the North Tehran Meteorological Station and Maghsoudbek Hydrometric Station, with three rainfall events and validated with two other events. By comparing the results of observational and computational, the output flows of Zargandeh basin, the root mean square error (RMSE) are obtained for the first to fifth events were 0. 05, 0. 22, 0. 39, 0. 37 and 0. 16, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) are obtained 0. 91, 0. 94, 0. 93, 0. 9 and 0. 94, respectively. Also, the percentage of relative error (RE%) for most events is less than ±,10% and the percentage of absolute relative error (ARE%) is less than 20%, all of this comparison indicates that model calibration is appropriate. However, land use changing and urbanization, which results of increasing the impermeability of the urban surfaces and reducing the roughness coefficient of these areas, can increase the peak flow of floods, the volume of runoff and the overflow of runoff from urban canals and it causes of the property and life hazards risk. The results of this study can be useful for future modeling in the northern part of Tehran city and other areas that are similar to the catchment in terms of the hydraulic and physiological characteristics.

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APA: Copy

Badizadegan, Reza, Khodashenas, Saeid Reza, & ESMAEILI, KAZEM. (2021). Sensitivity Analysis of the Affecting Parameters on the Urban Runoff Results in SWMM Model (Case Study: North Catchments of Tehran City). MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL, 21(5 ), 57-70. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/1036620/en

Vancouver: Copy

Badizadegan Reza, Khodashenas Saeid Reza, ESMAEILI KAZEM. Sensitivity Analysis of the Affecting Parameters on the Urban Runoff Results in SWMM Model (Case Study: North Catchments of Tehran City). MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL[Internet]. 2021;21(5 ):57-70. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/1036620/en

IEEE: Copy

Reza Badizadegan, Saeid Reza Khodashenas, and KAZEM ESMAEILI, “Sensitivity Analysis of the Affecting Parameters on the Urban Runoff Results in SWMM Model (Case Study: North Catchments of Tehran City),” MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL, vol. 21, no. 5 , pp. 57–70, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/1036620/en

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