The purpose of this paper is to estimate the response of the central bank's intervention policy based on Wimmark's (5991) theory. For this purpose, first, the central bank's intervention index was calculated with the currency market pressure approach and then the response function of the intervention policy with the threshold approach (STAR) based on seasonal data for the years 5731-5793 was estimated. The results of the estimation of the linear part of the model show that the variable of exchange rate deviations from the long-term path has a negative effect on the central bank's intervention index. Meanwhile, the results of the non-linear estimation of the model indicate the positive effect of long-term exchange rate deviations and the growth rate of foreign exchange earnings from oil sales on the intervention of the Central Bank in Iran. This indicates that with the increase in government foreign exchange earnings, the growth of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will increase. In other words, the government is offering more foreign currency to the central bank in exchange for the Rials, and the central bank is forced to add these amounts to its foreign exchange reserves. In fact, in Iran, due to high inflation, governments have always tried to regulate the exchange rate at a low level in order to prevent the rise in prices. The result of this type of intervention has been the inflexibility of the nominal exchange rate in response to changes and economic developments, which could be a factor in reducing the real exchange rate in recent decades in Iran.

The study of exchange market pressure and assessing the central bank's intervention in different periods can provide valuable information on the performance of central bank and the efficiency of policies applied in exchange market. This paper aims to estimate the degree of CBI's direct intervention from May 1993 until March 2009 by applying 3SLS method. The main finding of this research suggests that the mean of direct intervention is 0.16 in the period prior to the fixed exchange rate period and 0.33 in the period following that period, when the managed floating exchange rate system was in place. Moreover, the CBI has been frequently leaning against the wind.

This study seeks to examine the effect of central bank intervention pressure on the country’s business cycles during recession and expansion regimes. For this purpose, using a rotational model and the Markov-switching regime change approach, the effects of the study variables are analyzed over the period from 1994 to 2022. The estimation results of the Markov model for recession and expansion periods indicate that the central bank intervention index, deviations of the exchange rate from its long-term path, the effect of sanctions, and the inflation rate during both recession and expansion periods have a positive impact on the output gap. Moreover, the variable of the growth rate of foreign exchange revenues from oil sales during expansion periods leads to a reduction in the output gap. These effects over the years should be analyzed in light of the central bank’s intervention in the national economy. Specifically, the greater the growth in the exchange rate, the more policymakers have sought to react in order to control the exchange rate growth and prevent further increases. However, the response to deviations in the exchange rate diminishes. Therefore, under conditions where the exchange rate experiences higher growth, policymakers tend to focus more on controlling the exchange rate and pay less attention to its deviations.

In the present study, in the first stage, the central bank's policy intervention index and foreign exchange market pressure were calculated, and then, using gentle transfer regression (STR), the effect of central bank intervention on the profitability of the country's commercial banks was investigated. According to the model results,In 24 of the 30 years surveyed, the country's economy has faced increasing pressure from the foreign exchange market. In other words, between 1370 and 1399, the central bank's intervention activities eliminated an average of 24% of the foreign exchange market pressure. Also, the results of STR model estimation show the positive effect of economic growth rate variable on bank profitability and the negative effects of central bank intervention, stock return rate, credit risk, inflation rate and interest rate on the profitability of commercial banks. The negative coefficient of the central bank intervention index can indicate that the central bank, in the face of increasing positive deviations in the exchange rate, is pursuing a decline in the growth of its foreign reserves. In other words, with a further increase in the supply of foreign exchange in the market, its value decreases and the exchange rate return to its long-term path. On the other hand, if there is a negative deviation in the exchange rate of the central bank, by increasing the volume of foreign reserves and reducing the supply in the foreign exchange market, it can increase this rate and approach its long-term path, which is in line with existing theories. This is the context.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) and the impact of domestic and foreign variables in such markets to access the direct intervention of central banks in these markets in selected oil-exporting countries (Iran, Russia, Norway, and Mexico) during1997/1-2017/4, Using the VECM and VAR model. The results show that the general situation of the foreign exchange market in Iran and Russia is the appreciation of the national currency and in Mexico and Norway is neutral. Most of the direct interventions of the Central Bank of Iran are under Leaning Against the Wind, by contrast, the other countries' are normal. For Russia, fluctuations in real GDP, for Iran, fluctuations in domestic interest rates, and for Mexico and Norway, fluctuations in domestic and U.S. interest rates affect the EMP. In addition, to explain the level trend of EMP by its shock for each country, for Russia, real GDP shocks, and for Mexico, U.S. interest rates shocks and U.S. GDP shocks also explain the level trend of EMP. The central bank direct interventions of all countries except Norway reacted significantly to the oil price shocks, which can be interpreted that the Norwegian Oil Revenue Fund has succeeded in maintaining independence the central bank direct interventions from global oil market fluctuations.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate overshooting and central bank intervention on Iran's trade with the Caspian Basin countries based on data from 1995-2019 and using the Panel Star soft threshold (PSTR) approach. The results of the model estimate show; The variables of GDP per capita, trade agreement, population, distance between the capital, the border and common language have a positive effect and the variables of central bank intervention and exchange rate overshooting have a negative effect on Iran's trade volume with Caspian countries. Artificial pricing of the exchange rate in the years before the crisis and preventing its adjustment in accordance with economic conditions is one of the main reasons for the recent currency crisis in the country. In addition, the calculation of the foreign exchange market pressure index and central bank interventions indicate that the highest numbers obtained for this index are related to the time when the gap between the free exchange rate and the official exchange rate has widened. the expanding and diversifying markets and financial institutions, moving to an open economy and trade agreements, and using foreign investment and changing capital market regulations to increase transparency and stability to increase savings And investment can provide the basis for increasing the country's exports..

Enhancing the independence of the monetary authorities to mitigate inflationary bias is seen as a crucial political decision. Many countries, by adopting this approach, have assured their economies that controlling inflation and achieving macroeconomic stability are binding constraints for political authorities. Some countries enshrine such independence in their constitution, others through legislation related to the central bank, while some adhere to it in practice without any legal mandate. With the introduction of the new Central Bank Act, questions arise about whether this principle has been upheld. This study employs prominent independence measurement indicators, namely the Cukierman Index and the Grilli Index, to assess the Central Bank's independence under both the Monetary and Banking Act and the new Central Bank Act, as well as to compare it with other countries’ central banks’ independence. The results indicate that, compared to the Monetary and Banking Act, the new Central Bank Act has increased the Central Bank's independence by 16.6% based on the Grilli Index and by approximately 7% based on the Cukierman Index. However, despite these improvements, the legal independence of the Central Bank under the new act remains within the lowest 25% globally.

This paper analyzed the effects of exchange rate pass-through with emphasis on the inflationary environment of Iran and the behavior of the Central Bank. Therefore,the STAR model during the period 2001:03 to 2019:04 was used. The results showed that GDP and the volume of money have a positive relationship and nominal interest rate, exchange rate and the central bank intervention have a negative relationship with the price index. The difference between the coefficients of the variables in the two regimes indicates that the effect of exchange rate and GDP growth on the price index in each regime is different. In the low exchange rate regime, the increase in the exchange rate causes a decrease and in the high exchange rate regime, the price index increases. There may be a causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation. That is, inflation increases with the increase in the exchange rate and the price of imported goods, and this inflation causes the exchange rate to rise again. On the other hand, the growth rate of the exchange rate in the impulse function is more than its deviations from the equilibrium which indicates the interventions of the Central Bank have been more to control the growth of the exchange rate. In fact, with this policy, the central bank has sought to control rising prices.

The issue of exchange rate fluctuations, management and central bank intervention in this market is one of the most important issues in the field of economic literature as well as in economic policy issues. In order to maintain balance in the markets, especially the foreign exchange market, and to protect it from the attack of traders, policymakers always try to manage exchange rate changes in a favorable range by applying appropriate policy tools. Under a managed floating exchange rate system, surplus supply or demand for foreign exchange is usually adjusted by a combination of exchange rate fluctuations and foreign reserves. Simultaneous changes in exchange rates and foreign reserves are interpreted in the economic literature as Exchange Market Pressure. Due to the strong dependence of government economic activities and even the private sector on foreign exchange resources resulting from oil exports, due to the rapid transfer of foreign exchange shocks to the country's economic variables, the study of this issue is inevitable. So this article tries to embedding the monetary channel of the Exchange Market Pressure index in the policy function of the central bank based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, the policymaker's behavior in the face of various foreign exchange shocks should be analyzed. Accordingly, the exchange rate fluctuation has been compared in two policy functions of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. In the first model, monetary policy is adjusted in response to the foreign Exchange Market Pressure index, and in the second model sensitive to the real exchange rate. The results show that in the first model, in exchange rate shoks, inflation, production, consumption and investment have less fluctuations than the second model, and the economy reaches equilibrium in less time. Therefore, the effectiveness of the central bank's monetary policy through sensitivity to foreign exchange market pressure will be greater than sensitivity to the real exchange rate.