Precipitation temporal TREND ANALYSIS and study of the drought condition have been of great concern during the past century because of the attention given to global climate change by the scientific community. The aim of present study was to investigate and analyze the rainfall TRENDs and its affected drought conditions in Jazmurian basin using non-parametric mann-kendall method and multidimensional comparison of drought indices including Standardized Precipitation (SPI), deciles (DI), the percentage of normal (PNI), Chinese Z (CZI) and the Z score (ZSI) with rainfall data from 24 gauged stations for the period of 1983 to 2013. For this, the drought indices were calculated, and then categorization was performed on the basis of similarity and correlation using cluster ANALYSIS method. The results proved a positive and significant increase in the rainfall amount of 1992-1993 and 1995-1996 years. Statistical ANALYSIS showed that the highest amount of rainfall occurred in the years of 1992-93, 1995-96 and 2004-2005 and the lowest in the years of 1983, 2000, 2003 and 2005 in the basin. Cluster ANALYSIS showed that the ZSI and PN indices with similarity of hundred percent in the diagnosis of wet and dry periods, intensity, duration and continuity were completely similar and had the highest similarity among all the groups. The CZI and SPI with 99. 5 percent similarity were in the second level of similarity as well. Validation of the results through the numerical comparison of SPI and CZI indicates the same TREND of two indicators and little differences in presenting the drought conditions of Jazmorian basin. However, in assessing the severity of droughts, CZI showed more severe drought condition. Overall, the results showed a greater focus of the drought in the southern east and southern parts of the basin indicating the high probability of drought occurrence potential of the basin. Therefore, the study of drought through CZI and SPI indices in the basin of Jazmorian is suggested for the proper policy making and management of water resources regarding conservation and increasing of the productivity from environmental, economic and social point of views.

Introduction: Identification of heavy rainfall events are important in the design of water-related structures, agriculture, weather modification, policy making and planning and in monitoring climate change. Generally the change in rainfall in the world was examined in both time and space. Hence, much attention has been paid to different methods of ANALYSIS of extreme precipitations during recent years.Karl and Knight (1998), studied the twentieth century TRENDs of precipitation are examined by a variety of methods to more fully describe how precipitation has changed or varied. They believed that since 1910, precipitation has increased by about 10% across the contiguous United States. The increase in precipitation is reflected primarily in the heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. For example, over half 53% of the total increase of precipitation is due to positive TRENDs in the upper 10 percentiles of the precipitation distribution.

In this study the time series of annual maximum dry spells and the number annual dry spells of Isfahan province were analyzed in order to establish the existence of rainfall variability using Mann-Kendall test. The selected time series were first tested for homogeneity. Results indicated statistically homogeneity at 95% significant level. The results of TREND ANALYSIS showed that only 2 stations have significant decreasing TREND of the maximum annual dry spells at the significant level of 5%. The results also showed3 stations with increasing TREND in the number of dry spells and 1 station with decreasing TREND in the number of dry spells which are significant at 5% and 1% significant levels respectively.

Background & Aim: The aim of the study was to define the epidemiological characteristics of most important infectious diseases in Iran in recent decades.Methods & Materials: This was a situation TREND ANALYSIS of infectious diseases (vector and water borne disease, and food borne diseases) in recent decades based on data availability. Three significance levels were used for Mann-Kendall test (90%, 95% and 99%).Results: The morbidities of most studied diseases had decreased in whole of the country. Unlike other diseases, coetaneous leishmaniasis had not followed the deacreasing TREND. In terms of location, Khorasan-e-Shomali was followed the increasing pattern for in four out of six disaeses [malaria, leishmaniasis (coetaneous and visceral), and typhoid].Conclusion: In conclusion, there is a significant decreasing TREND of most important infectious diseases in Iran. Nevertheless, climate change is already happening and would influence the diseases TRENDs. Hence, developing and implementing adaptation strategies should be considered.

Urbanization with all its semblances, complexities, and problems has been able to have profound effects on the behavior and action of citizens. This study intends to examine the issue of urbanization TRENDs growth sociologically through survey method among women. It seems that in terms of acceptance, internalization, and representing parts of cultural situation, values and urbanization norms, women have peculiar conditions which need to be studied. This article is an attempt at analyzing the research findings, patterns and basic indicators of urban women in connection with Urbanization. The level of the research is micro and the unit of ANALYSIS is individual. Sample size was 400 individuals of 20-50 year old women living in three districts of Tehran, selected randomly by cluster sampling. Findings revealed a significant relationship among Urbanization and self-estrangement, rationalization of individual action, declination of social cohesion and escalation of individualism and loss of bond between women.

Objective: Population censuses, as rich resources to find knowledge of demographic characteristics, are used to survey main characteristics of households in Iran that have wide application in planning, socio-economic and cultural policymaking. One of the most difficulties in demographical studies is the composition of households and analyzing the TREND of changes during time.In this paper, the TREND analyses of household composition during 1996-2006 are studied. Since knowing about what reasons made these changes can lead to make a correct planning, by using some characteristics of the head of households, these changes are discussed.Methods: It's a descriptive study based on censuses information of two years in 1996 and 2006. This study is about household composition regarding the relationship between the members of the household and the head of household in 2006 and comparison of household composition changes in 1996-2006 periods in Iran. Investigation of the portion of the different kinds of household change and investigation of the head of household characteristics such as age, economic activity status, marital status and literacy status in different household types are the other objectives that are discussed. The structural manner of household composition in different provinces in 2006 and the situation of welfare facilities in different households are also studied. By a statistical log linear model, the association between types of household and some household welfare facilities are discussed.Findings: The most important finding is the change of household composition between years 1996 and 2006, difference between some characteristics of the head of the household in different types of household and also the difference between the structures of household composition in provinces in 2006. Also some association between types of household and some household welfare facilities such as car, computer and housing are found, by using a statistical log linear model.Conclusion: Although the greatest part of household composition in our country is married couple family with child (ren), the external circumstances show that the proportion of these households who have the traditional pattern of household composition, is decreasing from two aspects. On one part, the proportion of single parent households has an increasing TREND and from the other part, the proportion of one-person household, individuals who live alone, is increasing.The mentioned changes that reflect increasing rate of divorce and life expectancies follow several bad results and it is necessary that authorities consider a cure (such as demonstrating special facilities, building psychosomatics consulting centers etc.) for the social, cultural and economic requirement of this growing population that live in one-person households or single parent households.

Study of extreme precipitations and related extreme events is of great importance in policy making and planning in variety of sectors including agriculture, water management, urbanization and building, and road and transportation.Hence, much attention has been paid to different methods of ANALYSIS of extreme precipitations during recent years.To study extreme precipitations over Iran, we used extreme precipitation indices like Maximum I-day precipitation ( Rc1 day), Maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rc5 day), Simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), Number of days with precipitation equal to or greater than 10, 20, and 25 mm (R10mm, R20mm, and R25mm), Maximum number of consecutive dry and wet days (CDD and CWD), Total precipitation when daily amounts are greater than 95th and 99th percentile of wet days( R95 P and R99 p), and Total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT).Our used data were limited to daily precipitation data from only 27 of Iranian synoptic stations that have reliable data and covering standard normal period 1961-1990.We found all three behaviors of stationary, positive and negative TRENDs over the country. As TRENDs for majority of the indices were positive in regions like Hormozgan, Esfahan, and Tehran, but on the contrary, they were negative for majority of the indices in regions like Azerbaijan and Fars.Former results correspond well with findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that expects higher number of occurrences of extreme precipitation events beyond of tropical region. Positive TRENDs for 10 indices in Babolsar and negative TRENDs for 10 indices in Bushehr and Tabriz (7 out of 10 are significant at 0.05 level) indicate complex behaviors of extreme precipitation; over the country Occurrence of very abnormal values like total precipitation of 1 mm in Bandar abbas in 1962 have significantly affected slopes of TRENDs in most of the extreme precipitation indices.

The aim of this study is TREND ANALYSIS of stream flows of east Azarbayejan in three time scales, which are monthly, seasonal and annual using the non-parametric methods. For this purpose the information of discharges often hydrometric stations (1983 -2008) were used. The Mann-Kendal test was used after removing the all significant autocorrelation effects from the data. In order to estimate the slope of TREND line the Sen, s estimator method was used. Results showed that about 30% of the stations showed statistically significant negative TRENDs in annual time scale. The strongest negative TREND line slope belonged to the Vanyar station having the slope of 0.35 (m3/s/year) in annual timescale. In seasonal time scale, negative TRENDs observed at almost all the stations. In monthly time scale stream flow TRENDs were negative for most of the stations and none of the stations experienced positive significant TRENDs (evenat 10% level). The strongest negative TREND observed in Tazek and (Soofi-Chay), which was significant at 10% level.

Drought and water deficit is a challenge in arid and semi-arid regions which have recently intensified because of climate change. In recent years, the combined effect of climate change and socioeconomic factors exacerbate desertification processes, especially due to lack of water resources in land, wetlands and lakes, which appears in most parts of the country. Climate change is one of the challenges which lead to many environmental consequences. TREND ANALYSIS of river flows is an important issue in water resources planning and management and can provide valuable information. Heretofore, a numerous studies used parametric and non-parametric methods to examine the existence of significant TRENDs in hydro-climatic time series. Most of the studies used non-parametric methods for TREND ANALYSIS and a few studies used linear regression test. The non-parametric methods were used in this study because the non-parametric methods are distribution-free, robust against outliers, and have a higher power for non-normally distributed data. The Mann-Kendall (MK) method (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) is the most commonly used non-parametric method that has recommended for identification of monotonic TRENDs in different hydrologic and climatologic time series by World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The serial dependence between observations should not exist when the original classic MK test used for TREND detection. However, in most of the hydro-meteorological time series, significant autocorrelation with different time lags, in addition to lag-1, may exist among observations. In such a situation, application of the classic version of the MK test for TREND ANALYSIS could yield unreliable results. As some of previous studies showed that the presence of positive auto-correlation overestimates the significance of both positive and negative TRENDs, whereas negative auto-correlation underestimates the significance of both positive and negative TRENDs. The existence of more than one significant auto-correlation among data called as long-term persistence (LTP). To incorporate the LTP behavior in MK test, Hamed (2008) suggested to remove the effect of all significant serial correlation before applying the classic MK test. The surface water is one of the main resource for providing irrigation demand in Hamadan province. However, in recent decays, because of increasing the farm land area, the available surface water resources cannot provide the agricultural demand for water completely, so the farmers have drilled a lot of wells to extract groundwater for irrigation uses. The overexploitation of groundwater led to severe decline of the water table in most parts of the Hamadan province. In this study, the TREND of river flows of the Hamadan province was investigated in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales by using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, after removing the effect of all significant serial correlation. For this purpose, monthly stream flow data of 17 hydrometric stations during 1985 to 2013 were used. The Sen’ s slope estimator was used to estimate TREND line slope. Also, the abrupt change points in the stream flow time series were detected using the Pettitt test. The results showed that in annual time scale all stations had negative TRENDs, as about half of them were significant at the 10 % level or less. The most severe significant negative TREND in 1% level belonged to Bujin station with a Z value of-3. 28. At seasonal time scale, the discharges of most rivers were experienced decreasing TREND which the summer ranked first. In monthly time scale, among 204 considered series (12*17), only 15 stream flow series showed a significant positive TREND (at 10% significance level) and 102 stream flow series have experienced a significant decreasing TREND (at 10% significance level) and 87 series had no significant TREND. The most significant negative TREND of monthly stream flow series belonged to Kooshkabad stations in June with Z value of-4. 45. The maximum number of stations with significant negative TREND at monthly time scale at the level of 10% or less belonged to April. The highest slope of the TREND line for annual time scale belonged to the Aran station, which was equal to 0. 36 m3/s/yr. In general, TRENDs of river flows in Hamadan province were statistically negative at 10% level. The results of applying the Pettitt test showed that in most stations, the significant change point in annual stream flow time series were occurred between 1995 and 1999. The results of investigating the TREND of precipitation across the Hamadan province reveal that there is no negative TREND in precipitation, and it seems the main reason of decreasing stream flow in this province is due to water extraction at the upstream of rivers in recent years. The results of the present study may be used by water resources planners to alter surface water allocations based on the TREND of river flows.

Enhancing the complexity in the world environment and network relations is caused increasing of foresight and strategic management s importance. While the organizations recognized the importance of foresight, many organizations are excited to do it. There are many problem for doing foresight in organizations such as lack of appropriate methodology, work continuously, integration of activities and near future estimation instead of foresight. Today foresight is used widely and shows a broad spectrum of approaches that can improve decision making. This paper presents a new methodology for TREND ANALYSIS and the mutual effect of TRENDs. Then propose some strategy for organization by the result of this ANALYSIS.