It is not possible to manage the INFLATION rate without recognizing the factors affecting it, including how the expected INFLATION is formed. In this study, the formation of INFLATION expectations has been simulated and tested in the form of comparative extrasensory expectations (considering the trend) in comparison with past INFLATION rates using Quantile econometric method and the new Phillips-Keynesian hybrid curve. For this purpose, the annual data of INFLATION rate, production gap and expected INFLATION simulation during the years 1357 to 1395 have been used. Based on the model estimation results, in the lower quantities of the INFLATION rate, the expected INFLATION using the past INFLATION rate is statistically more significant and the higher the INFLATION rate, the better the modeling using the past INFLATION trend gives better results. In the Iranian economy, which is associated with high levels of INFLATION, the formation of INFLATION expectations of economic agents is more compatible with the past INFLATION trend. Therefore, in order to reduce INFLATION expectations and achieve low levels of INFLATION in consecutive years, it is much more important to pay attention to the past INFLATION trend than the previous INFLATION rate.