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مرکز اطلاعات علمی SID1
اسکوپوس
دانشگاه غیر انتفاعی مهر اروند
ریسرچگیت
strs
Author(s): 

TAGHAVI M. | KHODDAM M.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2011
  • Volume: 

    4
  • Issue: 

    9
  • Pages: 

    147-192
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    1
  • Views: 

    1710
  • Downloads: 

    620
Abstract: 

Understanding the identity of phenomenon and their relation is one of the function of science. the insight of this knowledge can help scientists to predict the future and make the background of changes and decisions.In addition to understanding of phenomenon relationship some other studies try to compare the theories and find the best one on the point of their predictability. In this study we tried to review different paradigm and thoughts and theories of EXCHANGE RATE and its behavior and also to compare their ability in forecasting the behavior of EXCHANGE RATE, for this reason we postulate four theories of EXCHANGE RATE which are: mondell-flemming theory, purchasing power parity thory, asset market theory and monetary with flexible price.Our time framework include "in the sample" and "out of sample" data and our case study in this research is examining the behavior of GBP/USD in FOREIGN EXCHANGE market (FOREX), in the sample data include 01/01/1988 to 01/06/2008 monthly and out of sample data include 01/01/2006 to 01/06/2008.In this research we postulated the theories with in the sample data and after examining the validity of model with macro econometric techniques, then with extracting the four measures RMSE, MAPE, MAE and THEIL INEQUALITY COEFFICIENT we evaluated the ability of forecasting each model based on its theory. Finally the result of the study showed that in the mentioned time framework mondell-flemming model could forecast the behavior of GBP/USD better than other theories.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2010
  • Volume: 

    10
  • Issue: 

    1 (37)
  • Pages: 

    13-32
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1349
  • Downloads: 

    420
Abstract: 

Chaotic theory suggests a new method for studying trends in markets and reveals the hidden pattern behind the data that common models can not define them. The usual tests for chaos are calculation of the largest Lyapunov exponent (Le) and strange attractors. A positive largest Lyapunov exponent indicates chaos. Positive amount of "Le" shows chaoticness of process and difficulty of predictability and when it is negative, it shows that process in the long run is non chaotic and predicable. If "Le" moves towards positive quantity near zero, chaotic system is weak and middle term predictability is possible. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATEs vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) from 1992/3/25 to 2007/5/23 and two artificial models with regard to the Takens embedding theorem have been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom, in addition; trend in Iran EXCHANGE Market is not linear and we can not forecast it with common linear methods.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2011
  • Volume: 

    1
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    110-111
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    454
  • Views: 

    13578
  • Downloads: 

    27661
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

Yearly Impact:

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گارگاه ها آموزشی
Author(s): 

AKHBARI MOHAMMAD

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2006
  • Volume: 

    -
  • Issue: 

    75
  • Pages: 

    43-74
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    5
  • Views: 

    996
  • Downloads: 

    129
Abstract: 

In recent years, one of the most important challenges of policy makers in Iran has been the level of FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE. Some people believe that the existing RATE is not the right one. While some of them consider the existing EXCHANGE RATE higher than the equilibrium level, others think it is lower than that. In this paper, by utilizing theoretical approach, an attempt is made to analyze the past trend of EXCHANGE RATE. The conclusion of this paper indicates that the trend of the FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE movement is following the monetary policy. This approach has been proved in most of the third world countries which are experiencing high RATEs of inflation. With respect to findings of this paper one can believe that the growth of money supply, income and the difference between home and FOREIGN interest RATEs USA are most important factors that determine the trend of money value at home.

Yearly Impact:

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2000
  • Volume: 

    18
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    10-17
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    932
  • Views: 

    30747
  • Downloads: 

    30210
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

Yearly Impact:

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2011
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    15
  • Pages: 

    15-29
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    89376
  • Downloads: 

    49199
Abstract: 

Computational intelligence approaches have gradually established themselves as a popular tool for forecasting the complicated financial markets. Forecasting accuracy is one of the most important features of forecasting models; hence, never has research directed at improving upon the effectiveness of time series models stopped. Nowadays, despite the numerous time series forecasting models proposed in several past decades, it is widely recognized that EXCHANGE RATEs are extremely difficult to forecast. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are one of the most accuRATE and widely used forecasting models that have been successfully applied for EXCHANGE RATE forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid model is proposed based on the basic concepts of artificial neural networks in order to yield more accuRATE results than the traditional ANNs in short span of time situations. Three EXCHANGE RATE data sets—the British pound, the United States dollar, and the Euro against the Iran rial-are used in order to demonstRATE the appropriateness and effectiveness of the proposed model. Empirical results of EXCHANGE RATE forecasting indicate that hybrid modelis generally better than artificial neural networks and other models presented for EXCHANGE RATE forecasting, in cases where inadequate historical data are available. Therefore, our proposed model can be a suitablealternative model for financial markets to achieve greater forecasting accuracy, especiallyin incomplete data situations.

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strs
Author(s): 

ARIZE A.C. | OSANG T. | SLOTTJE D.J.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2000
  • Volume: 

    18
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    10-17
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    454
  • Views: 

    27695
  • Downloads: 

    27847
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

Yearly Impact:

View 27695

Download 27847 Citation 454 Refrence 0
Author(s): 

KHALIGHI L. | SHOKAT FADAEI M.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2013
  • Volume: 

    4
  • Issue: 

    4 (16)
  • Pages: 

    97-112
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1716
  • Downloads: 

    403
Abstract: 

The main goal of this paper is to study EXCHANGE RATE impact on the export of dates as one of the most important exported horticultural products in Iran. For this purpose, ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to estimate the relationship between volume of exported dates and other selected variables. The required data were collected from various official resources. Results showed that EXCHANGE RATE is a critical factor and exporters reacted to its changes. In addition, other factors such as FOREIGN currency written promise, EXCHANGE RATE unification and stabilization policy, had impacts on volume of date’s exports. Outsourcing FOREIGN policy that was always considered a short-term policy had negative effect on export. Unification of the EXCHANGE RATE did not have significant impact on dates export. Also, EXCHANGE RATE stabilization policy led to reduce the potential exporter’s income due to prevailing inflation in the country and increased production costs.

Yearly Impact:

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    6
  • Issue: 

    1 (19)
  • Pages: 

    19-26
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    91339
  • Downloads: 

    29187
Abstract: 

The successful key of trading in the forex market is the selection of correct EXCHANGE in proper time based on an exact prediction of future EXCHANGE RATE. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATEs are affected by many correlated economic, political and even psychological factors. Therefore, in order to achieve a profitable trade these factors should be considered. The application of intelligent techniques for forecasting has been proved extremely successful in recent years. Previous studies have mainly focused on the historical prices and the trading volume of one market only. In this paper, we have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the EXCHANGE RATE with respect to three external factors including gold, petroleum prices and FTSE 100 index. The result of forecasts is compared with the ANNs without external factors. The empirical results demonstRATE that the proposed model can be an effective way of forecasting. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of EXCHANGE RATE of GBP/USD is used.

Yearly Impact:

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