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Title

COMPARISON OF TWO GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS TO DOWNSCALE TEMPERATURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

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Abstract

 TWO SERIES OF GLOBAL COUPLED MODEL WITH TMAX AND TMIN OBSERVED DATA FROM ONE METEOROLOGICAL STATION IN THE NORTHEAST OF IRAN FOR PERIOD 1983-2012 ARE PERFORMED TO INVESTIGATE. THE RESULTS SHOW THAT THE MODEL PERFORMS VERY WELL FOR TMAX AND TMIN SIMULATION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ESTIMATIONS ARE GENERALLY WELL, BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS OVERESTIMATED AND EXTREME COLD EVENTS ARE NOT REPRESENTED WELL. THE TMAX CHANGES ARE PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE IN WINTER AND SPRING BUT NEGATIVE IN SUMMER (EXCEPT IN JULY) AND AUTUMN, FOR BOTH SCENARIOS BY HADCM3 AND CGCM3 MODELS IN 2020S. IN GENERAL, BOTH GCMS SHOW AN INCREASE IN TMIN IN EARLY SUMMER FOR THE 2020S AND 2050S. THE INCREASE IN TMIN BY HADCM3 (CGCM3) WAS 1.59% (1.3%) AND 7% (6.7%) DURING THE PERIODS 2020S AND 2050S, RESPECTIVELY.

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