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Assessment of Changes in Maize Yield under the Impact of Climate Change in Kermanshah Province


 Start Page 227 | End Page 255


 Investigating the effect of Climate change on agricultural crop yield in a geographical area is an important approach in climatologic studies. Our study aims to predict the Maize yield under the impact of Climate change in Kermanshah Province. For this purpose, CGCM3 model under A1B scenario and Change Factor downscaling method as well as WOFOST agricultural model were employed using daily data of four weather stations in the province, including the minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours at a 28-year period (1982-2009). The base (1982-2009) and future (2023-2050) data were taken from Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS). After downscaling, changes of any of the climatologic parameters were analyzed, and consequently the results were entered into the WOFOST agricultural model. The results showed that the minimum and maximum temperatures in the stations in the upcoming 28-year period will increase on average 1. 3 and 1. 7° C, respectively. However, precipitation will be faced with both increasing and decreasing situations. Despite the increase of growth period of Maize in the region due to rising temperatures, crop’ s potential yield in the future will be considerably reduced on average by 22 percent due to reduced rainfall in some parts of the region and also reduced relative humidity in all stations. The highest yield reduction will occur in low-lying and warm area of Sarpol-e-zahab in the west of province by 28. 7 percent.


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