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Title

Designing a Model for Scenarios Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Key Actors' Interactions.

Pages

 Start Page 36 | End Page 59

Abstract

Scenario Planning is a technique that, given environmental uncertainties, offers several perspectives different from the future. The scenarios present the possible future scenarios in stories and provide alternative narratives about future-related situations. Scenario Planning is one of the best and most powerful tools for future scientific knowledge that can be used to identify and review future changes and uncertainties in the future. Given the importance of scenario analysis and its effects on the country's macro-programs, organizations, firms, etc., the success and effectiveness of scenario-making processes has always been a concern for the management of countries. Considering the key role of casters in the future, this research seeks to extract the behavior of the actors in each of the key elements of the future, in order to develop existing methods, and then proceed with scenarios. To this end, the scenarios that were developed by researchers and experts in this field were reviewed and a new framework for studying scenario was obtained and validated by a team of experts in this area.

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