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Title

MODELING THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC LOSS OF NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE OF TEHRAN'S EARTHQUAKE

Pages

 Start Page 99 | End Page 127

Abstract

 Iran is located on fault lines and due to abundant seismicity as well as being positioned on one of the world's seismic belts Lpa, it is very vulnerable to EARTHQUAKEs. In addition, in spite of having one percent of the world' s population, Iran suffers from more than six percent of all casualties from natural disasters in the world. Many major cities including TEHRAN are located on active faults. In the event of a potential EARTHQUAKE TEHRAN's general urban weakness, high population density, and poor dispersion in neighborhoods can cause significant casualties and structural damage. Due to high level of trade with other provinces, the extent of damage would not be limited to TEHRAN and can cause considerable damage to the economy at a national scale. The main goal of this paper is to predict the regional economic loss from EARTHQUAKE in TEHRAN and the rest of the country using a two- region input-output model. The main source of the data is a two-regional input- output table, which is constructed from 2011 national input- output table (Parliament Research Center) and regional accounts (Statistical Center of Iran), using FLQ non- survey based technique. The sectoral vulnerability under the five scenarios: none, little, moderate, major, and extensive are borrowed from Rahimi (2012). The results showed the economic impact of EARTHQUAKE in TEHRAN on its GDP would be 81% in none, and up to 103% in the extensive scenario, while for rest of the country it would be 24% to 30% of national GDP.

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