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Title

FORECASTING MONTHLY PRECIPITATION USING A HYBRID MODEL OF WAVELET ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND COMPARISON WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Pages

 Start Page 18 | End Page 33

Abstract

 Doubtlessly the first step in a river management is precipitation prediction of the watershed area. However, considering high-stochastic property of the process, many models are still being developed in order to define such a complex phenomenon in the field of hydrologic engineering. Recently Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is extensively used as a non-linear inter-extrapolator by hydrologists. In the present study, Wavelet Analysis combined with artificial neural network and compared with Artificial Neural Network to predict the precipitation of Varayeneh station in the city of Nahavand. For this purpose, the original time series using wavelet theory decomposed to multi sub-signals. After this these sub-signals are used as input data to Artificial Neural Network to predict monthly Precipitation. The results showed that according to correlation coefficient of 0.92 and mean square error of 0.002 for the hybrid model of Wavelet- ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS, the performance of this model is better than Artificial Neural Network with correlation coefficient of 0.75 and mean square error of 0.003 and can be used for short and long term precipitation prediction.

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