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Information Journal Paper

Title

AN ANALYSIS OF THE VARIATION, TREND, AND CYCLES OF PRECIPLTATLON AND DISCHARGE IN THE WEST OF GUILAN PROVINCE (CASE STUDY: NAVROUD BASIN)

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 Start Page 73 | End Page 90

Abstract

 In this study, predominant variation and CYCLEs of precipitation and discharge parameters in the Karjegill station were analyzed by Mann Kendal test and SPECTRAL ANALYSIS in monthly, seasonal and annual scales during the period of 38 years (1342-1382). Results show, that the variations in monthly scale occurred in the March and September, and no variation was observed in the seasons, but the annual precipitation has been changed to 0.26 values. In surveying the data TREND, the discontinuous TRENDs were distinguished in defined range (±1.96) with significant level of 95% in time series. There is the most conformity between precipitation and discharge TRENDs in autumn season, but in other seasons, there are both conformity and nonconformity between two parameters, Also, no considerable TREND out of defined range has been seen in monthly parameters. However, the September series have inverse TREND from early to end of period. In the other hand, the CYCLEs with most significant variance are obtained by using SPECTRAL ANALYSIS and proved the sinuous CYCLEs (non TREND) for all of time series (monthly, seasonal). Likewise, the four non sinuous CYCLEs (trend) obtained for January, February, and August discharge.

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