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Identification of the Strategies of Vulnerable Regional Economic Development Based on the Assumption Based Planning (Abp) (Case Study: Province Of Tehran)


 Start Page 1 | End Page 31


Assumption Based Planning (ABP)Q1


 Identifying the future uncertainties and fundamental assumptions in the regional development planning by which the long-term applications have been based on, is one of the main fields in detecting problems and facing challenges of developmental documents. Post-Planning refers to the evaluation of success or failure in the developed policy and planning in the future time horizons. Assumption Based Planning (ABP) is one of the Post-Planning methods, which could be used in creating stable and adaptable programs. The objective of using the assumption based planning is to reduce the number of inevitable surprises. This research focuses on the relation and the value of each strategy in every probable uncertainties of Tehran Province in the vision 1404 and it is conducted to correct the long-term development strategies of Tehran Province in the program horizon. The analysis of long-term development strategies of Tehran Province is studied in domain consisting the economic field. This research is a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of category and is based on new methods in the science of future studies, analytical and exploratory in terms of nature, which is conducted by a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. Hierarchical decision making, interactions analysis and Delphi methods are used in this research due its nature, and MicMac, Expert choice and SPSS software are used in within-data analysis. The results indicate that the economic domain has the highest vulnerable strategy. Therefore, weaknesses and drawbacks, existing in the long-term development plan of Tehran Province, could be identified and reexamined by utilizing ABP method.


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