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Evaluating the Climatic Condition of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Incidence in Kerman Province of Iran


 Start Page 129 | End Page 148


 Leishmaniases are among the most important tropical vector-borne diseases, that it estimated to infect 20000 people yearly in Iran, has a strong relationship with climatic condition. This disease is transmitted to human hosts by the bite of a Phlebotomine Sand Fly that was previously fed by biting an infected reservoir. So that this disease such as most vector born disease is affected by environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we intend to examine the monthly dynamics of incidence of this zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) as a function of climatic and environmental indicators in region which covers a large area of the arid of southeastern portion of Iran, Kerman province during 2006 to 2011. To achieve this aim we use monthly ZCL incidence data during which they were given from local health center of Kerman province. The required climatic factors were also given from meteorological organization. 2 products of MODIS namely, Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were also used as environmental factors in order to monitoring land temperature and vegetation cover situation. Finally we have used correlation and cross-correlation analysis to reveal the relationship between climatic factors and ZCL incidence in Kerman province. The results suggest the strong negative correlation between ZCL incidence and air temperature (AT), LST and EVI simultaneously which is-0. 6,-0. 52 and-0. 48, respectively. But with 4 months lag time in the same year; we observed the AT and LST have strong positive correlation with ZLC incidence which is about 0. 74 and 0. 62 respectively. But EVI by 3 months lag time has positive association with ZLC incidence in Kerman. Calibrating the sensitivity of ZCL by climatic and physiographical condition can be very helpful in developing climate-based ZLC pre-warning systems. It should be noted that the sporadic incidence of ZLC (and any vector born disease) in any region cannot be referred to climatic and physiographical condition confidently. The sporadic incidence is usually related to individual factors such as travelling to endemic region and personal lifestyle. whereas the climatic condition is not prone to these diseases, the prevalence cannot be occurred easily.


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