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Title

THE PREDICTION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE PARAMETER BY THE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS HADCM3: A CASE STUDY OF KERMAN AND BAM

Pages

 Start Page 51 | End Page 62

Abstract

 If the greenhouse gas increases, the climate balance of the globe upsets, so the CLIMATE CHANGEs. The GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS, GCMs are widely used to evaluate the CLIMATE CHANGE impacts. The GCMs only can simulate the climate parameter in the big areas. It is necessary to change the data of the model to the micro scale by the different techniques in order to use the model. The aim of this study is evaluating the effect of CLIMATE CHANGE event on the daily temperature of Kerman and Bam station. In this study, the HADCM3 GCMs under two scenarios of B2 and A2 was used, and the outputs of HADCM3 model was made micro scale by the statically model of SDSM for three statically periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. The results of the statically T-test show the significant variation of temperature of the months in the three statically periods when it is compared with the observation periods. According to results of making micro scale, the average temperature of Kerman and Bam station increase 3 to 5 centigrade until the recent century, and the maximum increasing temperature will be in the summer.

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