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Paper Information

Title: 

PRICE PREDICTABILITY ANALYSIS IN COMPETITIVE MARKET FOR ELECTRICAL POWER

Type: PAPER
Author(s): AHMARINEJAD AMIR,RAJABI MASHHADI HABIB,SADEH JAVAD
 
 
 
Name of Seminar: INTERNATIONAL POWER SYSTEM CONFRENCE
Type of Seminar:  CONFERENCE
Sponsor:  SHERKATE TAVANIR
Date:  2004Volume 19
 
 
Abstract: 

THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY IN MANY COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD IS MOVING FROM A CENTRALIZED APPROACH TO A COMPETITIVE ONE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FOR MARKET PARTICIPANTS AND MARKET OPERATOR IS THE PRICE FORECASTING. PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS RELY ON PRICE FORECAST INFORMATION TO PREPARE THEIR CORRESPONDING BIDDING STRATEGIES. FOR EXAMPLE, IF A PRODUCER HAS A GOOD FORECAST OF MARKET CLEARING PRICE (MCP) FOR THE NEXT DAY, HE CAN DEVELOP A STRATEGY TO MAXIMIZE ITS OWN BENEFIT.
SO FAR MANY PAPERS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED ABOUT THE LOAD AND PRICE FORECASTING, BUT THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE STOCHASTIC PROCESSES HAS NOT DEEPLY CONSIDERED.
IN THIS PAPER A SIMPLE, EFFECTIVE AND CONCEPTUAL INDEX IS INTRODUCED TO MEASURE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ELECTRICITY LOAD AND THE MARKET PRICE. THE ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BASED ON THIS INDEX SHOWS THAT THE ELECTRICITY PRICE IS NOT PREDICTABLE AS WELL AS THE ELECTRICITY LOAD.

 
Keyword(s): ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING, INDEXES OF PREDICTABILITY, TIME SERIES, NEURAL NETWORKS, MARKET SIMULATION
 
 
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