Paper Information

Title: 

INTERCOMPARISON OF MARKOV CHAIN AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTION RESULTS IN DROUGHT INVESTIGATION APPLICATION

Type: PAPER
Author(s): YUSEFI N.A.,HAJJAM S.,IRANNEJAD P.,KATIRAEI P.
 
 
 
Name of Seminar: CONFRANCE ZHEOFIZIKE IRAN
Type of Seminar:  CONFERENCE
Sponsor:  ANJOMANE MELI ZHEOFIZIK IRAN
Date:  2006Volume 12
 
 
Abstract: 

AN INCREASE OR DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY COMPARED TO THE NORMAL CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK OF FLOODS OR A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF DROUGHT. KNOWLEDGE OF THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES. SUCH KNOWLEDGE CAN BE ACHIEVED USING DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL APPROACHES. IN THE PRESENT ARTICLE THE PROBABILITY OF DIFFERENT DROUGHT STATES (VERY DRY, DRY, SEMIDRY, NORMAL, SEMI WET, WET, AND VERY WET) ARE CALCULATED BASED ON THE ANNUAL AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN GHAZVIN USING THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS. THE RESULTS INDICATE THAT THE PROBABILITIES OF DROUGHT/WET STATES BASED ON ANNUAL AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION DATA AS CALCULATED USING THE TWO METHODS ARE COMPARABLE. THE STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS USING C2 , HOWEVER, REVEALS THAT THE MARKOV CHAIN METHOD IS SUPERIOR TO THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION.

 
Keyword(s): DROUGHT, STATISTICAL MODELS, MARKOV CHAIN, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
 
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