Paper Information

Title: 

THE ESTIMATION OF GAS OIL DEMAND FUNCTION IN ZAHEDAN BY USING ARDL CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

Type: PAPER
Author(s): SAFDARI MAHDI,PAHLAVANI MOSAYEB,FALNAZARI SEYED MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN*
 
 *ECONOMICS FACULTY OF SISTAN AND BALUCHESTAN UNIVERSITY
 
Name of Seminar: HAMAYESH MELI AFZAYESH DARAMADHAYE NAFTI VA IJADE FORSATHAYE SHOGHLI
Type of Seminar:  CONGRESS
Sponsor: 
Date:  2008Volume 1
 
 
Abstract: 

THIS ARTICLE STUDIES EFFECTS OF GAS OIL PRICE, FOB PRICE OF GAS OIL, ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, AND TRIPS ON THE GAS OIL DEMAND IN ZAHEDAN USING SEASONAL DATA FROM 1377 TO 1385. THIS RESEARCH USES AUTO REGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAGS METHOD (ARDL) TO ESTIMATE GAS OIL DEMAND FUNCTION. EVALUATED RESULTS WHICH HAVE BEEN DERIVED FROM ARDL APPROACH AND ECM TEST INDICATE THAT ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, TRIPS, AND FOB PRICE OF GAS OIL HAD SIGNIFICANT AND POSITIVE INFLUENCES ON THE GAS OIL DEMAND. ALSO REAL PRICE OF GAS OIL HAD SIGNIFICANT AND NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE GAS OIL DEMAND. THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS OF THIS ARTICLE INDICATE THAT REAL PRICE, ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, AND TRIPS ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE KEY VARIABLES ON GAS OIL DEMAND. ALSO THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS INDICATE THAT GAS OIL SMUGGLING IN SHORT TIME IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN IN LONG TIME. ALSO ECM RESULT INDICATES THAT THE SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT OF GAS OIL DEMAND FUNCTION OF ZAHEDAN IS SO HIGH. FINALLY THIS ARTICLE PREDICTS THAT PERFORMING "GAS OIL RATIONING SYSTEM" IN ZAHEDAN CAN DECREASE GAS OIL SMUGGLING IN SHORT TERM.

 
Keyword(s): GAS OIL DEMAND, PRICE ELASTICITY, FUEL SMUGGLING, ARDL CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH
 
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