Paper Information

Title: 

USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS IN DROUGHT MODELING (A CASE STUDY: DROUGHT SIMULATION IN FARS PROVINCE)

Type: PAPER
Author(s): SHAMSNIA SEYES AMIR,PIRMORADIAN NADER,AMIRI SEYED NASER
 
 
 
Name of Seminar: HAMAYESHE MANTAGHEI KARBORD FANAVARIHAYE NOVIN DAR KESHAVARZI
Type of Seminar:  CONGRESS
Sponsor:  Islamic Azad University, Shiraz
Date:  2008Volume 1
 
 
Abstract: 

DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT NATURAL DISASTERS WHICH AFFECT SECTORS WITH ITS VERY MUCH FREQUENCY PARTICULARLY IN DRY AND SEMIDRY AREAS OF IRAN. LACK OF RAINING WILL HAVE VARIOUS EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURE, SURFACE WATER AND UNDERGROUND WATER RESOURCES, HUMIDITY OF SOIL AND RIVERS. REGARDING THE LOCATION OF FARS PROVINCE ON DRY AND SEMIDRY CLIMATE AREA AND THE INCIDENCE OF REPEATED DROUGHT, ESPECIALLY IN RECENT YEARS, PAYING ATTENTION TO DROUGHT SIMULATION AND FORECASTING SEEM NECESSARY. QUANTITATIVE AND DESCRIPTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESS AND THE ANTICIPATION AND ESTIMATION OF ITS BEHAVIOR AT THE TIME AND SITUATIONS WITHOUT OBSERVATION AND SAMPLE REQUIRES HAVING A PATTERN AND MODEL OF THAT PROCESS. ONE OF THE METHODS TO ACCESS THE GOAL OF MODELALIZATION IN DROUGHT INCIDENCE IS THE USE OF TIME SERIES MODEL. IN THE PRESENT STUDY, THE RAINING STATISTIC OF 90 STATIONS OF PLUVIOMETRY AND SYNOPTIC IN FARS PROVINCE WERE USED WITH REGARD TO 30 YEARS OF STATISTIC PERIOD. TO DETERMINE THE GRADE OF DROUGHT SEVERITY, THE STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX WAS ALSO USED DUE TO ITS ADVANTAGES IN LOCAL ANALYSIS AND ESTABLISHING TIME RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DROUGHT INCIDENCES. DETERMINATION OF DESIRABLE LOCAL MODEL ACCORDING TO DROUGHT CONDITION OF FARS PROVINCE WAS CONDUCTED AFTER DROUGHT SEVERITY MONITORING AND EVALUATION. THE SUITABLE MODEL FOR EACH AREA WAS PROVIDED USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND BASED ON PROVIDED LOCAL PATTERN IN DIFFERENT AREAS OF FARS PROVINCE. THE ARIMA METHOD WAS SELECTED IN DROUGHT INCIDENCE SIMULATION USING TIME SERIES MODELS BASED ON THE AUTOCORRELATION AND PARTIAL-AUTOCORRELATION, ALL PROBABLE MODELS DUE TO STABILITY AND PARAMETERS AND DIFFERENT METHOD EVALUATION AND THE MOST SUITABLE MODEL WAS DETERMINED AND PRESENTED FOR DROUGHT SIMULATION IN EACH AREA.

 
Keyword(s): DROUGHT, SIMULATION, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, FARS PROVINCE
 
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