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Paper Information

Journal:   PLANT ECOPHYSIOLOGY (ARSANJAN BRANCH)   spring 2018 , Volume 10 , Number 32 #l00572; Page(s) 161 To 176.

Modeling growth and yield of safflower in Isfahan

Author(s):  Dadrasi v., TORABI B., GHASEMI MAHAM S.
Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius) is one of the most important agronomic and medicinal crops in Iran, that it’ s potential yield and limitations can be determined using a simple model and long-term meteorological data. This study was performed to yield prediction and statistical modeling of Safflower based on meteorological indicators and climatic parameters. Phenology, dry matter production and distribution and soil-water balance sub models should be studied in order to growth stages and yield prediction in agricultural crops. Parameters related to each sub model were estimated using data reported on different sowing dates during the years 2002-2015 in Isfahan region and the data reported by other researchers in other regions. Growth and yield changes were calculated by phenology, dry matter production and distribution using meteorological data (minimum and maximum temperatures, radiation and rainfall) from Isfahan region, and the safflower crop yield at the end of growing season was predicted. One of the model evaluation criteria is comparison of coefficient of linear regression between observed and predicted yield (a= 0. 46 ± 0. 073, b= 1. 49 ± 0. 18) with coefficient of line 1: 1. In the field experiments the limit for Coefficient of variation (CV) is 20 to 25. Accuracy of the model was high, regarding to the coefficient of variation of predicted and observed grain yield (CV=8. 89). R2 of grain yield was 0. 75, which is indicating that predicted data are 70 percent likely match with observed data. Variation range for observed data was 1. 2 to 4. 61 tones per hectar and the mean was 2. 9 tones and for the predicted data it was 1. 94 to 3. 62 tones per hectar and the mean was 2. 78 Tones per hectar. In all cases, simulated yield compliance with observed yield. Hence, given the ability of the model to simulate the phonological stages of safflower, it can be used as a suitable tool for planning and better management of safflower fields in Isfahan.
Keyword(s): Modeling,phonology,dry matter,leaf area,safflower
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