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Paper Information

Journal:   JOURNAL OF SOCIAL STUDIED IN TOURISM   fall 2018-winter 2019 , Volume 6 , Number 12 #g00653; Page(s) 121 To 144.
 
Paper: 

Modeling for Predicting Domestic Demands for Recreational Tourism in Tehran

 
 
Author(s):  FARZIN MOHAMMAD REZA*, AFSAR AMIR, Dabir Alireza, ZANDI EBTEHAL
 
* Department of Tourism Management, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
 
Abstract: 
Recreational tourism is an important form of domestic tourism in Tehran, based on the statistics of the National Center of Statistics and the views of the experts. This paper tried to propose models for predicting effective variables on predicting domestic demands for recreational tourism in Tehran. The study used the monthly information between 2001 and 2015. The independent variable was the number of domestic recreational tourists in Tehran, and the dependent variables were selected based on Delphi and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques. The model framework was a combination of regression, the fuzzy neural network, and SVR algorithm. The combinations of these methods helped measure prediction errors and compare methods. Results showed that the proposed hybrid approach of regression and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) could have a better prediction compared to other methods for predicting domestic recreational tourism.
 
Keyword(s): regression,Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS),Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithm,recreational tourism,prediction,Tehran
 
References: 
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  Persian Abstract Yearly Visit 67
 
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