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Paper Information

Journal:   ADVANCE RESEARCHES IN CIVIL ENGINEERING   2019 , Volume 1 , Number 3; Page(s) 49 To 57.

The Karkheh River Streamflow Forecast based on the Modelling of Time Series

Author(s):  Hamidi Machekposhti Karim, SEDGHI HOSSEIN*, Telvari Abdolrasoul, BABAZADEH HOSSEIN
* Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Science and Research Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are appropriate for the annual streamflows (annual peak and maximum and also mean discharges) of the Karkheh River at Jelogir Majin station of Karkheh river basin in Khuzestan province in western Iran, through the Box-Jenkins time series modelling approach. In this research among the suggested models interpreted from ACF and PACF, ARIMA(4, 1, 1) for all annual streamflows satisfied all tests and showed the best performance. The model forecasted streamflow for ten leading years showed the ability of the model to forecast statistical properties of the streamflow in short time in future. The SAS and SPSS softwares were used to implement of the models.
Keyword(s): Hydrologic Time Series,Box-Jenkins Approach,ARIMA Model,Karkheh River
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