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Paper Information

Journal:   WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT   2019 , Volume 11 , Number 1 ; Page(s) 112 To 128.

Investigation of previous trend and prediction of climate parameters in Semirom region

Author(s):  Saboohi Razieh*, BARANI HOSSEIN, KHODAGHOLI MORTEZA, Abedi Sarvestani Ahmed, TAHMASEBI ASGHAR
* Faculty of Range Land and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
Climate change is one of the most important phenomena in recent years that effects on natural resources and especially the communities whose livelihoods is relation to it. Prediction of climate parameters for monitoring future changes and adaptation to climate change have been concerned by researchers. In order to analysis previous trend and prediction of precipitation, mean minimum and maximum temperature, non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and General Circulation Models, HadCM3, were used, respectively. The output data of HadCM3 was downscaled under three defined scenarios of climate change namely A1B, A2 and B1 using LARS-WG model in Semirom region. Results showed that temperature parameters (mean, mean minimum and mean maximum) had increased trend in winter and autumn seasons and annual scale in six studied stations. Temperature parameters showed different trend in spring and summer seasons and the annual precipitation is showed negative trend in most of the stations. Also, results of minimum temperature prediction showed that minimum temperature will generally increase with three scenarios during 21 century. The maximum increase in mean minimum temperature compared to the current period, is observed in November with more than 0. 8 ° C increase. Prediction the maximum temperature represents a change in the maximum temperature threshold and warming in all months of the year this century, except January and precipitation will expect to increase in all months except June and September based on three scenarios.
Keyword(s): Climate change,Climate scenarios,Downscale,HadCM3,Mann-Kendall
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