Paper Information

Journal:   RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH   spring-summer 2017 , Volume 8 , Number 1 (27) #r00449; Page(s) 41 To 53.
 
Paper: 

Investigation of Climate Anomalies using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Tabas

 
 
Author(s):  GHAZAVI REZA, Moosavian Seyed Mohammad Mahdi*
 
* Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran
 
Abstract: 
In this study, the effects of climate change on desertification process in Tabas was studied using the SDSM software and long-term statistics (30-year period) of synoptic stations to predict temperature and rainfall parameters by the data of HADCM3 model for future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under two scenarios A2 and B2. In addition, this process was studied in two 15-year periods and Domarten method was also used to determine the degree of rainfall area. The results of the predictions and the observation period were compared together. Due to the significant effect of decreasing temperature and rainfall as well as drought index on the desertification process, drought indices were also determined. Results indicated that the effects of climate change on the getting worse of conditions in the area and consequently, decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature and decreasing the drought index were significant. According to the results, it can be stated that although the desertification process is affected by several factors, but in the future climate changes, there are the probability of increasing the desertification process and expansion of desert areas in Tabas, due to the change in rainfall and increasing temperature. On the other hand, because of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall, many agricultural lands will be released, and the conditions for soil degradation as a result of increasing desert areas will increase.
 
Keyword(s): Climatic fluctuations,Desertification,Drought index,Synoptic stations
 
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