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Paper Information

Journal:   JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING (JISE)   SPRING 2016 , Volume 9 , Number 2; Page(s) 20 To 37.
 
Paper: 

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF CHANGE POINT IN PHASE ONE RISK ADJUSTED CONTROL CHARTS

 
 
Author(s):  GHASEMI REZA*, SAMIMI YASSER, SHAHRIARI HAMID
 
* DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING, K.N TOOSI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, TEHRAN, IRAN
 
Abstract: 

Use of risk adjusted control charts for monitoring patients’ surgical outcomes is now common. These charts are developed based on considering the patient’s pre-operation risks. Change point detection is a crucial problem in statistical process control (SPC).It helps the managers toanalyzeroot causes of out-of-control conditions more effectively. Since the control chart signals do not necessarily indicate the real change point of the process, in this researcha Bayesian estimation methodis applied to find the time and the size of a change in patients’ post-surgery death or survival outcome. The process is monitored in phase I using Risk Adjusted Log-likelihood Ratio Test (RALRT) chart, in which the logistic regression model is applied to take into accountpre-operation individual risks. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is applied to obtain the posterior distribution of the change pointmodel including time and size of the change in the Bayesian framework and also to obtain the corresponding credible intervals. Performance evaluations of the Bayesian estimator in comparison with the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) are conducted by means of different simulation studies. When the magnitude of the change is small, simulation results indicate superiority of the Bayesian estimator over MLE, especially when a more accurate estimation of the change point is of interest.

 
Keyword(s): RISK ADJUSTED CONTROL CHARTS, CHANGE POINT, BAYESIAN ESTIMATION, MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO (MCMC)
 
 
References: 
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Click to Cite.
APA: Copy

GHASEMI, R., & SAMIMI, Y., & SHAHRIARI, H. (2016). BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF CHANGE POINT IN PHASE ONE RISK ADJUSTED CONTROL CHARTS. JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING (JISE), 9(2), 20-37. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=570769



Vancouver: Copy

GHASEMI REZA, SAMIMI YASSER, SHAHRIARI HAMID. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF CHANGE POINT IN PHASE ONE RISK ADJUSTED CONTROL CHARTS. JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING (JISE). 2016 [cited 2021May11];9(2):20-37. Available from: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=570769



IEEE: Copy

GHASEMI, R., SAMIMI, Y., SHAHRIARI, H., 2016. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF CHANGE POINT IN PHASE ONE RISK ADJUSTED CONTROL CHARTS. JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING (JISE), [online] 9(2), pp.20-37. Available: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=570769.



 
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