Paper Information

Journal:   DESERT (BIABAN)   2003 , Volume 8 , Number 2; Page(s) 292 To 310.
 
Paper: 

PREDICTION OF DROUGHT SEVERITY, DURATION AND FREQUENCY USING PROBABILISTIC AND TIME SERIES METHODS (CASE STUDY: SISTAN AND BALOUCHESTAN PROVINCE)

 
 
Author(s):  RAZIEI T., SHOKOUHI A.R., SAGHAFIAN B.
 
* 
 
Abstract: 

Drought, as an integrated part of climate variability, may be investigated through many different aspects. In this study, severity, duration and frequency (SDF) of meteorological drought in Sistan and Belochestan province were investigated. In order to construct Z-score time series, homogeneous data set was established and standardized for each individual month. Using run theory and based on a selected truncation level, dry, wet and normal months and periods were determined and eventually the SDF curves were derived. In the next step, transition probability matrix and equilibrium transition matrix were developed for each station via combination of run theory and Markov Chain. Finally, the long-term condition of the region from drought point of view was investigated and probability of drought occurrence and length of drought events for the next 10 years were predicted.

 
Keyword(s): METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT, Z-SCORE; RUN THEORY, MARKOV CHAIN, SDF, SISTAN AND BELOCHESTAN
 
References: 
  • ندارد
 
  Persian Abstract Yearly Visit 91
 
Latest on Blog
Enter SID Blog