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Paper Information

Journal:   IRANIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER RESEARCH   WINTER 2016 , Volume 46 , Number 4; Page(s) 597 To 607.
 
Paper: 

THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF PERSIAN GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON MONTHLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING OF KARKHEH RIVER, IRAN

 
 
Author(s):  MODARRESI FERESHTEH*, ARAGHINEJAD SHAHAB, EBRAHIMI KUMARS
 
* DEPARTMENT OF IRRIGATION AND RECLAMATION ENG., FACULTY OF AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES, UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN, IRAN
 
Abstract: 

In the current paper, the combined effect of seasonal fluctuations of Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTS) on the forecast of monthly stream flow of Karkheh River has been investigated. To follow the purpose, Singular Value Decomposition method (SVD) has been made use of to determine the effective nodes of the seas on the climate of the region and to produce the correlated series of sea surface temperatures vs stream flow’s. Moreover, Generalized Regression Neural Network method (GRNN) based on cross-validation technique has been applied to determine the most appropriate predictors from same several combinations of predictors for each month. Results for the forecast of the inflow in to Garsha dam show that the Mediterranean sea SST, during autumn, affects the stream flow from February to April, and while summer and autumn SSTs of Persian Gulf affect the stream flow in April and May such that applying these two indices for stream flow forecast in April and May results in an average increase of 118% vs 282% in Nash-Sutcliff index during calibration vs validation phases, respectively.

 
Keyword(s): MONTHLY STREAM FLOW FORECASTING, SVD, PERSIAN GULF, MEDITERRANEAN SEA, GRNN
 
References: 
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