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Paper Information

Journal:   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT (IJAMAD)   JUNE 2016 , Volume 6 , Number 2; Page(s) 173 To 180.
 
Paper: 

SEASONALITY AND FORECASTING OF MONTHLY BROILER PRICE IN IRAN

 
 
Author(s):  FALSAFIAN AZADEH*
 
* DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT, EXTENSION AND EDUCATION, TABRIZ BRANCH, ISLAMIC AZAD UNIVERSITY, TABRIZ, IRAN
 
Abstract: 

The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropriate method for modeling seasonal behavior of the broiler price. Results of seasonal unit root test indicated that the monthly prices of broiler follow a non-stationary stochastic seasonal process. Accordingly, the regression- based model is an appropriate modeling framework. While SARIMA is an alternative modeling approach, the RMSE of forecasting error suggested the superiority of the regression based model over the SARIMA model. Therefore, the estimated parameters of the regression-based model can be used to predict the monthly prices of broiler in Iran.

 
Keyword(s): SEASONALITY, BROILER PRICE, PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE (PAR), SEASONAL UNIT ROOT, SEASONAL INTEGRATED
 
 
References: 
 
Citations: 
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APA: Copy

FALSAFIAN, A. (2016). SEASONALITY AND FORECASTING OF MONTHLY BROILER PRICE IN IRAN. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT (IJAMAD), 6(2), 173-180. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=510453



Vancouver: Copy

FALSAFIAN AZADEH. SEASONALITY AND FORECASTING OF MONTHLY BROILER PRICE IN IRAN. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT (IJAMAD). 2016 [cited 2021July25];6(2):173-180. Available from: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=510453



IEEE: Copy

FALSAFIAN, A., 2016. SEASONALITY AND FORECASTING OF MONTHLY BROILER PRICE IN IRAN. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT (IJAMAD), [online] 6(2), pp.173-180. Available: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=510453.



 
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