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Paper Information

Journal:   COMMONITY HEALTH   WINTER 2016 , Volume 3 , Number 1; Page(s) 66 To 73.
 
Paper: 

ANTICIPATING CANCER RATES OF IRAN IN 2025

 
 
Author(s):  ABACHIZADEH KAMBIZ*, KERAMATINIA ALIASGHAR
 
* SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH CENTER, SHAHID BEHESHTI UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, TEHRAN, IRAN
 
Abstract: 

Background and Objective: Anticipating future incidence of cancer would have a fundamental role in cancer planning and policy making in upcoming years. Therefore regarding to present situation and anticipating future trends affecting the upcoming 10 years such as demographic transition and changing of related risk factors, it is necessary to outline the cancer situation in the next 10 years.
Materials and Methods: Our study based on a review approach and existing fore sighting documents, especially GLOBOCAN 2012 and study of “projection of burden of diseases in Iran to 2025”, projects cancer situation of Iran in 2025.
Results: According to modeling and due to trend of demographic change and promoting life expectancy in Iran, incidence of cancer (except non-melanoma skin cancers) will increase from 84800 in 2012 to 129700 in 2025. Actulally there will be a 35% rise in cancer incidence. The percentage of cancer incidence rise will be 33% in males (from 44838 patients in 2012 to 66642 in 2025) and 37% in females (from 39991 in 2012 to 63067 in 2025). A 52% increase in cancer incidence will be related to people younger than 65 and 48% to people above 65 years old. The increasing rate will be 34% for breast cancer, 37% for colorectal, 37% for lung, 38% for stomach, 39% for esophageal cancers, and 28% for leukemia.
Conclusion: The increase in cancer incidence percentage till 2025 in Iran is Significant in compare with the world. This increasing rate is much less in Europe. It should be mentioned that the trend of non-communicable risk factors such as physical inactivity; overweight and obesity; and smoking is undesirable and lack of attention to control of these factors leads to more problematic situation in future.

 
Keyword(s): ANTICIPATE, IRAN, CANCER, 2025
 
References: 
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  Persian Abstract Yearly Visit 179
 
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