Paper Information

Journal:   MAJLIS & RAHBORD   SUMMER 2016 , Volume 23 , Number 86; Page(s) 5 To 32.
 
Paper: 

FUTURES STUDIES OF IRAN’S ISSUES BY STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS METHOD

 
 
Author(s):  MOLAEI MOHAMAD MAHDI, TALEBIAN HAMED
 
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Abstract: 

‘Iran’s futures studies’ research is accomplished to examine trends, challenges and probable variables ahead, by gathering and organizing citizens and experts’ viewpoints, then, representing it in order to make readiness for a variety of possible, probable and desirable futures ahead of Iran’s society. To achieve this purpose, four steps is took including of 1) general polls to identify variables, 2) rating variables by selected experts, 3) holding expert panels to identify cross impacts among variables, 4) software and statistical analyses of cross impact matrix. After identifying the first 100 variables, it is used ‘structural analysis’ method and MICMAC software considered one of the ‘Strategic Foresight’ tools, in order to integrated analysis of cross impacts among variables. Finding of this research indicate that the most significant variables of Iran in 1394sh (March 2015 – March 2016) having the most effectiveness and dependencies over the other variables simultaneously, include ‘Social Capital’, ‘Policital Conflicts of Power Flows’ and ‘Islamic Consultative Assembly Election’, though ‘the Destination of Nuclear File’ is the most paramount one ahead.

 
Keyword(s): CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS, FUTURES STUDIES, STRATEGIC FORESIGHT, STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS
 
References: 
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