Paper Information

Journal:   IRANIAN RED CRESCENT MEDICAL JOURNAL (IRCMJ)   SEPTEMBER 2014 , Volume 16 , Number 9; Page(s) 1 To 6.
 
Paper: 

ESTIMATING THE ANNUAL RISK OF TUBERCULOSIS INFECTION AND DISEASE IN SOUTHEAST OF IRAN USING THE BAYESIAN MIXTURE METHOD

 
 
Author(s):  HAGHDOOST ALI AKBAR, AFSHARI MAHDI*, BANESHI MOHAMMAD REZA, GOUYA MOHAMMAD MEHDI, NASEHI MAHSHID, MOVAHEDNIA MAHTAB
 
* RESEARCH CENTER FOR MODELING IN HEALTH, INSTITUTE OF FUTURES STUDIES IN HEALTH, KERMAN UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, KERMAN, IR IRAN
 
Abstract: 

Background: Tuberculosis is still a public health concern in Iran. The main challenge in monitoring epidemiological status of tuberculosis is to estimate its incidence accurately.
Objectives: We used a newly developed approach to estimate the incidence of tuberculosis in Sistan, an endemic area in southeast of Iran in 2012-13.
Patients and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on school children aged 6-9 years. We estimated a required sample size of 6350. Study participants were selected using stratified two-stage cluster sampling method and recruited in a tuberculin skin test survey. Indurations were assessed after 72 hours of the injection and their distributions were plotted. Prevalence and annual risk of tuberculosis infection (ARTI) were estimated using the Bayesian mixture model and some traditional methods. The incidence of active disease was calculated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique.
Results: We assumed weibull, normal and normal as the best distributions for indurations due to atypical reactions, BCG (Bacillus Calmette-Guerin) reactions and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, respectively. The estimated infection prevalence and ARTI were 3.6% (95%CI: 3.1, 4.1) and 0.48%, respectively. These estimates were lower than those obtained from the traditional methods. The incidence of active tuberculosis was estimated as 107 (87-149) per 100000 population with a CDR of 54% (40%-68%).
Conclusions: Although the mixture model showed slightly lower estimates than the traditional methods, it seems that this method might generate more accurate results for deep exploration of tuberculosis endemicity. Besides, we found that Sistan is a high endemic area for tuberculosis in Iran with a low case detection rate.

 
Keyword(s): TUBERCULOSIS, INFECTION, SURVEY
 
References: 
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