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Paper Information

Journal:   TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI   FALL 2012 , Volume 47 , Number 3; Page(s) 185 To 205.
 
Paper: 

ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE LIBERALIZATION ON THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES OF IRAN, WITHIN A STRUCTURAL MACRO ECONOMETRIC MODEL FRAMEWORK

 
 
Author(s):  NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD*, JALOULI MEHDI
 
* SHAHID BEHESHTI UNIVERSITY
 
Abstract: 

A medium scale structural macro econometric model is constructed to investigate the effects of energy price liberalization on the main macroeconomic variables. The analysis is conducted under 3 different scenarios of increasing the price of energy sources to the level prevailed in the countries of the Persian Gulf region. These 3 scenarios are a sudden increase, a gradual increase within a 5 years time span and a gradual increase in energy prices together with some compensation of household and the industry.
The simulation results show that under the first scenario, inflation rate goes up to 94%, GDP growth rate reduces to 1.2% and unemployment rate rises to 11.5%. Under the second scenario, in the first year of rising energy prices, inflation rate increase to 27.7% and GDP growth rates falls to 2%. If the third scenario is chosen, the inflation rate will increase to 95.2% in the first year, while GDP growth rate and unemployment rate will be 1.2% and 11.5% respectively.

 
Keyword(s): ENERGY PRICE LIBERALIZATION, STRUCTURAL MACRO ECONOMETRIC MODEL, DYNAMIC SIMULATION, STATIONARY, COINTEGRATION, ERROR CORRECTION MODEL
 
 
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+ Click to Cite.
APA: Copy

NOFERESTI, M., & JALOULI, M. (2012). ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE LIBERALIZATION ON THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES OF IRAN, WITHIN A STRUCTURAL MACRO ECONOMETRIC MODEL FRAMEWORK. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, 47(3), 185-205. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=277080



Vancouver: Copy

NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD, JALOULI MEHDI. ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE LIBERALIZATION ON THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES OF IRAN, WITHIN A STRUCTURAL MACRO ECONOMETRIC MODEL FRAMEWORK. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI. 2012 [cited 2021August01];47(3):185-205. Available from: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=277080



IEEE: Copy

NOFERESTI, M., JALOULI, M., 2012. ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICE LIBERALIZATION ON THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES OF IRAN, WITHIN A STRUCTURAL MACRO ECONOMETRIC MODEL FRAMEWORK. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, [online] 47(3), pp.185-205. Available: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=277080.



 
 
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