Paper Information

Journal:   AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL)   2012 , Volume 6 , Number 1; Page(s) 109 To 132.
 
Paper: 

INVESTIGATING THE IMPACT OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

 
 
Author(s):  GOUDARZI M., ROSTAMIAN R., TASLIMI M.
 
* 
 
Abstract: 

Inflation rate in Iran has been a growing concern despite the intense struggles, gradually becoming the country's economic problem. This study investigated the influence of inflation uncertainty on price indexes of agricultural products using time series data of 1974-2007. The inflation uncertainty is estimated applying GARCH models. The desired model was evaluated by vector auto regression (VAR). Impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition has also been checked. Impulse response functions in the agricultural sector against shocks from factors of value-added agriculture, degree of trade freedom, real exchange rate, the volume of liquidity, inflation uncertainty and the consumer price index to price index of agricultural products during ten periods in the future were examined. The variance decomposition results indicated that the agricultural sector in the short-term, mid-term and long-term, more volatility prices of agricultural products are explained by shocks. Results also revealed that from the VAR test in the agricultural sector indicated that inflation uncertainty together with other variables positively and significantly affects the price index of agricultural products. Thus, this variable should be taken to account in order to analyze price behavior of agricultural products and their determinants.

 
Keyword(s): INFLATION UNCERTAINTY, GARCH MODEL, VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL (VAR)
 
References: 
  • ندارد
 
  Persian Abstract Yearly Visit 45
 
Latest on Blog
Enter SID Blog