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Paper Information

Journal:   IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   MARCH 2010 , Volume 15 , Number 48; Page(s) 61 To 69.
 
Paper: 

SPATIO- TEMPORAL MODELING OF MALARIA DISEASE BY GEO-SPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA (CA)

 
 
Author(s):  AZARMEHR M.R.*, MESGARI M.S., KARIMI M.
 
* 
 
Abstract: 
Introduction and goal: Yearly statistics show a considerable number of life loses in the world resulted from Malaria disease.
Consequently, substantial efforts and budgets have to be dedicated to the control and elimination of this disease. Development of simulation models can help in understanding and studying the distribution of the disease. The goal of this research is to develop an easily-understandable patio-temporal model of the Malaria distribution.
Methodology: To model the distribution of the disease, the spatial analysis capabilities of Geospatial Information Systems (GIS), Cellular Automata (CA) and epidemic model of SIR are used.
The proposed model is implemented in Matlab and ArcGIS software environments. Different gray levels of the cells and proper time epochs are used for the visualization of the disease distribution process in space and time. A part of Minab township in Hormozgan province, in Iran, is selected as the study area, because of its high figures of the disease occurrences.
Results: In the developed simulation model, by introducing the spatial data layers and the input parameters, the distributed of the disease in space and time is visualized. An important capability provided by the model is to generate and study different scenarios. As examples, the effect of distance to stagnant water bodies, the concurrent effect of temperature and humidity, and the effects of some other parameters, introduced by Malaria experts, in the distribution of the disease, are simulated.
Conclusions: The simulation model developed in this research can help the managers to understand and predict the distribution of the Malaria in any given area or situation. Moreover, the model can be used to study the results of any decision taken by the managers, when trying to prevent or control the disease.
For example, the effect of different levels of vaccination in an area can be tested and analyzed by the model.
 
Keyword(s): EPIDEMIOLOGY, GEO-SPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS), CELLULAR AUTOMATA (CA), MALARIA
 
References: 
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  Persian Abstract Yearly Visit 89
 
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