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Paper Information

Journal:   THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH   FALL 2012 , Volume 12 , Number 3; Page(s) 191 To 210.
 
Paper: 

NONLINEARITY BEHAVIORS IN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPORT IN CASPIAN SEA BORDER COUNTRIES

 
 
Author(s):  MOJARAD ISMAT, KARBASI ALI REZA
 
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Abstract: 

The assumption of a linear relationship between export and economic growth in previous investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. In present study the relationship between export and economic growth in economies of Caspian Sea border countries (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) is explored with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results of study show that nonlinearities exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.

 
Keyword(s): ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXPORT, NONLINEAR SMOOTH TRANSITION MODEL, GRANGER CAUSALITY, CASPIAN SEA BORDER COUNTRIES
 
References: 
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