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Paper Information

Journal:   WATER ENGINEERING   SPRING 2011 , Volume 4 , Number 8; Page(s) 53 To 61.
 
Paper: 

THE PERSIAN GULF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTING USING THE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES

 
 
Author(s):  JAHANDIDEH M.*, SHIRVANI A.
 
* THE STAFF OF AZAD UNIVERSITY OF MARVDASHT
 
Abstract: 

The multivariate time series models as the linear stochastic models were used to forecast monthly average of the Persian Gulf surface temperature (PGST). The time series data of temperature for the period 1854-2007 for six sea grid points were considered as the input file of multivariate time series. Vector autoregressive processes were employed to perform multivariate time series. The auto-correlation function plot of the residuals for the fitted model, based on the Akaike's information criterion, has indicated that the residuals were uncorrelated. The monthly values of the PGST from January 2008 to December 2009 as the test data have been forecasted using the fitted models. The results have indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted values for each grid point was about 0.99. The root mean square prediction error for each grid point was less than 0.7 degrees Celsius.

 
Keyword(s): SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES, VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES, FORECASTING, PERSIAN GULF
 
 
References: 
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Click to Cite.
APA: Copy

JAHANDIDEH, M., & SHIRVANI, A. (2011). THE PERSIAN GULF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTING USING THE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES. WATER ENGINEERING, 4(8), 53-61. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=273880



Vancouver: Copy

JAHANDIDEH M., SHIRVANI A.. THE PERSIAN GULF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTING USING THE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES. WATER ENGINEERING. 2011 [cited 2021May14];4(8):53-61. Available from: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=273880



IEEE: Copy

JAHANDIDEH, M., SHIRVANI, A., 2011. THE PERSIAN GULF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTING USING THE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES. WATER ENGINEERING, [online] 4(8), pp.53-61. Available: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=273880.



 
 
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