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Paper Information

Journal:   IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH   SPRING 2009 , Volume 5 , Number 1 (13); Page(s) 1 To 13.
 
Paper: 

FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM: AN APPROPRIATE MODEL FOR DESIGNING AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

 
 
Author(s):  NOROUZI A., GHAVASIEH A.R.*, ATTARI J.
 
* WATER ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT, POWER AND WATER UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY (PWUT), TEHRAN, IRAN
 
Abstract: 

Probabilistic design is a new approach in the design of water resources systems. Accordingly, a framework for a flood warning system design is proposed in this study. The flood warning reliability assessment model, introduced by other authors, is then completed and presented in detail. The model is applied to the Madarsou river flood warning system in northeastern Iran, which was installed in 2005. In this case, one control cross section, three vulnerable areas, three time intervals of 30, 90 and 180 minutes for forecasting the flood crest height, two forecaster triggering stages (i.e.2.5m and 2.7m) and three warning thresholds (i.e.3m, 3.5m and 4m) are considered. Regardless of the warning thresholds, the longest potential lead-time is obtained for the 30 minute forecasting intervals. The potential lead-time decreases by increasing the system reliability, for higher trigger stages. The trade-off discussion between potential lead-time and system reliability helps decision makers to find out the optimum operational point based on the accepted risk. The analysis results for 30 minutes forecasting intervals in Madarsou showed that by increasing the lead time up to 9.28 hours, the number of missed flood increases from 15.10 to 17.78. Indeed, the discussion on the model reliability and the lead time trade-off depends on the system performance and the acceptable risks for a region.

 
Keyword(s): FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM, RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT, DISASTER DAMAGE REDUCTION
 
 
References: 
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Click to Cite.
APA: Copy

NOROUZI, A., & GHAVASIEH, A., & ATTARI, J. (2009). FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM: AN APPROPRIATE MODEL FOR DESIGNING AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 5(1 (13)), 1-13. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=272468



Vancouver: Copy

NOROUZI A., GHAVASIEH A.R., ATTARI J.. FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM: AN APPROPRIATE MODEL FOR DESIGNING AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH. 2009 [cited 2021May09];5(1 (13)):1-13. Available from: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=272468



IEEE: Copy

NOROUZI, A., GHAVASIEH, A., ATTARI, J., 2009. FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM: AN APPROPRIATE MODEL FOR DESIGNING AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, [online] 5(1 (13)), pp.1-13. Available: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=272468.



 
 
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