Paper Information

Journal:   ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW   WINTER 2012 , Volume 8 , Number 31; Page(s) 85 To 120.
 
Paper: 

LONG-TERM ENERGY PLANNING AND EXAMINATION OF SEVERAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR IRAN

 
 
Author(s):  ARDEHALI M.M., AMIRNEKOOEI K.*, SADRI A.
 
* AMIRKABIR UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
 
Abstract: 

Because Iran’s economy is highly dependent on oil and gas export, long term energy planning with considerations for various management strategies appears to be necessary and vital. The objective of this study is to forecast energy consumption for a 20 year period (2010-2030) and examine various demand and supply side management strategies based on Iran energy balance for 2007. Bottom-up analysis is performed using LEAP and energy consumption forecasting is carried out by two methods: (a) multi layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) and (b) JD model. For training ANN, gross domestic product (GDP), population and energy consumption historical data for period (1990-2007) are used. For forecasting by ANN, inputs GDP and population are estimated for the forecasting horizon. Grey model (GM) and Trigonometric Grey Model with Rolling Mechanism (TGMRM) are applied methods to predict GDP and, for population estimation, linear regression is employed. These two estimations are also useful for JD model forecasting method, since it has terms including GDP as well as population. To achieve the objective four scenarios are examined: (a) replacement incandescent lamps with compact fluorescent lamps (CFL), (b) utilization of natural gas fueled stoves in place of electric stoves (ES), (c) replacement of gasoline fueled vehicles with electric vehicles (EV) and (d) employment of coal power plants (CPP). Further, nuclear power utilization and employment of upgrading gas turbine plants to combined cycle ones are also considered in (a), (b) and (c) scenarios. Based on forecasting method (ANN-GM), applying CFL, ES and EV scenarios up to year 2030 results in savings of 2634.5, 2170.2 and 2553.9 MBOE respectively, and CPP scenario results reduction of natural gas and oil usage by 2440.8 MBOE, all to compare with BAU. The noted figures are 1.85, 1.52, 1.80 and 1.72 times Iran’s TPES in 2007 respectively.

 
Keyword(s): ENERGY PLANNING, ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECASTING, LEAP, REFERENCE ENERGY SYSTEM
 
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