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Paper Information

Journal:   JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)   MAY-JUNE 2012 , Volume 26 , Number 2; Page(s) 361 To 371.
 
Paper: 

RISK ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MAIZE YIELD AND WATER PRODUCTIVITY IN 2010-2039 PERIOD

 
 
Author(s):  ROOSTAEI M.*, SOHRABI T., MASSAH BAVANI A., AHADI M.S.
 
* IRRIGATION AND RECLAMATION ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT, UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN
 
Abstract: 

The main purpose of this research was assessing climate change impact on temperature, precipitation, maize biomass and water productivity values and trend in 2010-2039 in Pakdasht. According to this, required data for crop model (AquaCrop) calibration was collected from an experiment field in Pakdasht, south east of Tehran and climatological data were taken from Pakdasht and Aminabad meteorological station. An ensemble of nine AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) in corporation with A2 emission scenario was used in order to incorporate uncertainties of these models. Using Bayesian-Mont Carlo approach, temperature and precipitation CDFs were generated for risk levels of 25, 50 and 75%. Data obtained from AOGCMs were downscaled by means of “Change factor” method and input data for AquaCrop were produced then biomass values for future period of 2010-2039 were simulated. Results showed 7.8, 6.8 and 6.2% reduction in full irrigation and 20.8, 18.9 and 17.8% reduction of deficit irrigation treatment due to 25, 50 and 75% risk level, correspondingly. Descending trend of biomass and consequently water productivity were for most probably due to temperature and rain variability increment.

 
Keyword(s): WATER PRODUCTIVITY, PAKDASHT, CORN, RISK, AOGCM, AQUACROP
 
References: 
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