Paper Information

Journal:   GEOGRAPHY   FALL 2012 , Volume 10 , Number 34; Page(s) 5 To 24.
 
Paper: 

CONSIDER IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON FLOODS BY USING THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MODEL (AOGCM)

 
 
Author(s):  HEJAZIZADEH ZAHRA, FATAHI EBRAHIM, MASSAH BAVANI ALIREZA, NASSERZADEH MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN
 
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Abstract: 

This study considered impact of climate changes on floods by using the atmospheric circulation model (AOGCM) is in the Bakhtiari basin. To do this, the simulated temperature and precipitation in the future using CGCM3 the scenario emissions A2 of the models-AR4 AOGCM to fine-scale view of statistics (LARS-WG) and proportional method (rainfall) and the difference (minimum and maximum temperature). The rainfall - runoff HEC-HMS model was used, for simulation of flood in basin. Result of Simulate the climate variables on selected basin in future periods were reducing rainfall and increasing the minimum and maximum temperatures in the future. Simulation results in Bakhtiari Talezang station on the basin of Farvardin 69 flood showed that, simulational flow 357.7 m3 decreased as compared with observational flow that was equal %6.1 errors. In total, observed on average 20 percent reduction in precipitation of Bakhtiari Talezang station and 1.5 and 1 degree increase arrangement in maximum and minimum temperature. Results of extraction intensive precipitation in the future period (2011-2030), Showed that, although precipitation decrease at future, will occur intensive precipitation with more severity compared with based period, that to indicate increase in floods at future.

 
Keyword(s): CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE MODELING, RAINFALL–RUNOFF MODEL, FLOODS, BAKHTIARI BASIN
 
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