Paper Information

Journal:   JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)   SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2012 , Volume 26 , Number 4; Page(s) 953 To 967.
 
Paper: 

AGROCLIMATIC INDICES ASSESSMENT OVER SOME SELECTED WEATHER STATIONS OF KHORASAN RAZAVI PROVINCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

 
 
Author(s):  BABAEIAN I.*, KOUHI M.
 
* FERDOWSI UNIVERSITY OF MASHHAD, APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY DIVISION, CLIMATOLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
 
Abstract: 

Study of the climate change impacts on agricultural products and agro-climatic variables can improve the management strategies regarding to the agricultural demands in future decades and climate change mitigations in agriculture sector as well. Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic variables of Mashhad, Sabzevar and Torbat-e-heydariyeh including precipitation, temperature, Length of dry season, growing period and potential evapotranspiration under IPCC A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios has been studied using NCAR-PCM and GFDL-CM2.1 in the periods of 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. Uncertainty of each models are investigated. Statistical downscaling has been done using two different methods of multiple regressions for monthly to yearly time scales and stochastic weather generator of LARS-WG 5 for producing daily data. We used daily data for calculating daily potential evapotranspiration by using Hargrivz-Samani method. Results show that mean amount of growing period has been increased by 18.6 days in the period of 2070-2099 in all three stations. Growing period is increased both in 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 in Mashhad and Sabzevar, but it has decreased in Torbat-e- Heydariyeh in the same period. Precipitation change has no significant change in future decades in the stations under study, but mean annual precipitation of Mashhad, Sabzevar and Torbat-e- Heydariyeh will be decreased by 5.0, 2.8 and 2.6 mm per year in the period of 2070-2099. Results also indicated that mean amount of evapotranspiration in Mashhad, Sabzevar and Torbat-e- Heydariyeh will be decreased by 13.5%, 16.5% and 14% in 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively.

 
Keyword(s): CLIMATE CHANGE, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS, LENGTH OF DRY SEASON, GROWING PERIOD, POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EMISSION SCENARIOS, UNCERTAINTY
 
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