Paper Information

Journal:   IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS)   Summer 2003 , Volume 7 , Number 27; Page(s) 1 To 2.
 
Paper: 

EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVE VARIABLES ON BEHAVIOR OF NATIONAL SAVING IN IRANIAN ECONOMY

 
 
Author(s):  MOJTAHED A., KARAMI A.
 
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Abstract: 
In This Study, we attempted to evaluate the effect of economic growth, per capita income, dependency ratio, inflation and the Iranian Revolution on saving rate of Iranian economy. For this purpose, we developed a model based on a model of Aghevli et al in IMF and estimated it for the period of 1959-2000.
The results of the our estimation with using auto-regressive distributed lag shows our dynamic model approach toward the long-run equilibrium model. Also, the error correction model which indicate the relationship between saving rate with independent variables in the short run shows that the adjustment coefficient toward equilibrium is 0.63 and this amount of saving rate disequilibrium adjusted from one period to the next one.
In addition, National saving rate with respect to the independent variables has the same behaviour in the short run as well as in the long-run. The effect of growth rate and per capita income on saving rate is positive and inflation is negative and therefore, we can conclude that with higher population growth rate or rise of unemployment, dependency ratio will increase and saving rate will decrease.
 
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