Click for new scientific resources and news about Corona[COVID-19]

Paper Information

Journal:   THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH   WINTER 2007 , Volume 6 , Number 4; Page(s) 47 To 66.
 
Paper: 

CURRENCY CRISIS AND ECONOMY OF IRAN: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

 
 
Author(s):  ERFANI A.R.*
 
* FACULTY OF HUMANITIES, UNIVERSITY OF SEMNAN, IRAN
 
Abstract: 

Using the Markov-Switching method with quarterly 1388-2004 data, an Early Warning System for Iran is estimated. Doing so, the speculative pressure index (SPI), i.e. the weighted average of market real exchange rate changes and foreign reserves changes, is used as dependent variable, on the other hand, the deviations of real exchange rate from equilibrium trend, growth rate of M2 over foreign assets, growth rate of real output, ratio of foreign assets to total assets, growth rate of bank deposits, growth rate of bank deposits over M2, and the claims of the Central Bank on the government over total claims of the Central Bank are considered as the explanatory variables. According to the estimated model the average of SPI has been about 0.8 percent during tranquil period (null state) and about 11 percent during crisis period (1 state). Volatility of SPI in tranquil period and crisis period has been 2 and 14 percent respectively. This shows that both the average and volatility of SPI are appropriate variables to distinguish between tranquil and crisis periods in Iran. Our estimates show that if the Iranian economy is in tranquil state at time t, it will be in tranquil state at time t+1 with a probability of 0.73. And if it is in crisis at time t, it will return to tranquil state at time t+ 1 with a probability of 0.87.

 
Keyword(s): CURRENCY CRISIS, MARKOV-SWITCHING MODEL, EARLY WARNING SYSTEM, IRAN
 
References: 
  • ندارد
 
  Persian Abstract Yearly Visit 78
 
Latest on Blog
Enter SID Blog