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Journal:   IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   NOVEMBER 2015 , Volume 44 , Number 11; Page(s) 1526 To 1534.
 
Paper: 

Predicting The Incidence Of Smear Positive Tuberculosis Cases In Iran Using Time Series Analysis

 
 
Author(s):  Moosazadeh Mahmood, Khanjani Narges*, Nasehi Mahshid, Bahrampour Abbas
 
* ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH ENGINEERING RESEARCH CENTER, KERMAN UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, KERMAN, IRAN
 
Abstract: 
Background: Determining the temporal variation and forecasting the incidence of smear positive tuberculosis (TB) can play an important role in promoting the TB control program. Its results may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning and allocating resources. The present study forecasts the incidence of smear positive TB in Iran.Methods: This a longitudinal study using monthly tuberculosis incidence data recorded in the Iranian National Tu-berculosis Control Program. The sum of registered cases in each month created 84 time points. Time series methods were used for analysis. Based on the residual chart of ACF, PACF, Ljung-Box tests and the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected.Results: From April 2005 until March 2012, 34012 smear positive TB cases were recorded. The mean of TB monthly incidence was 404.9 (SD=54.7). The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in monthly in-cidence of smear positive TB was significant (P<0.001). SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1) 12 was selected as the most adequate model for prediction. It was predicted that the incidence of smear positive TB for 2015 will be about 9.8 per 100, 000 people.Conclusion: Based on the seasonal pattern of smear positive TB recorded cases, seasonal ARIMA model was suitable for predicting its incidence. Meanwhile, prediction results show an increasing trend of smear positive TB cases in Iran.
 
Keyword(s): TUBERCULOSIS, FORECASTING, SARIMA, BOX-JENKINS, IRAN
 
 
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APA: Copy

MOOSAZADEH, M., & KHANJANI, N., & NASEHI, M., & BAHRAMPOUR, A. (2015). PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF SMEAR POSITIVE TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN IRAN USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 44(11), 1526-1534. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=479811



Vancouver: Copy

MOOSAZADEH MAHMOOD, KHANJANI NARGES, NASEHI MAHSHID, BAHRAMPOUR ABBAS. PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF SMEAR POSITIVE TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN IRAN USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH. 2015 [cited 2022August09];44(11):1526-1534. Available from: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=479811



IEEE: Copy

MOOSAZADEH, M., KHANJANI, N., NASEHI, M., BAHRAMPOUR, A., 2015. PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF SMEAR POSITIVE TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN IRAN USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, [online] 44(11), pp.1526-1534. Available: https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=479811.



 
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