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Paper Information

Journal:   IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES   2001 , Volume 54 , Number 3; Page(s) 257 To 269.
 
Paper: 

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF PICEA ABIES AND PINUS RESINOSA BASED ON GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

 
 
Author(s):  JALILVAND H.*
 
* Natural Resources Faculty of Mazandardn University
 
Abstract: 

In this study a process oriented model of the JABOWA tree growth model was verified to simulate and to predict tree growth in hypothetical climate resulting from global climate change scenarios. Based on literature, four treatments were applied, normal temperature, and increases of 1, 3 and 5°c. First JABOWA was calibrated for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) and Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) using the weather data from 1953 to 1992. Comparison of basal area increment of both species for last (1983-1992) and the next (1993-2002) ten years showed that there were no significant differences when temperature was normal or increased by 1 and 3°c but it was significant (P<0.001) when temperature increased by 5°c. Treatment effects were negative on the growth of both species, except for normal and 1°c. Red pine grew. More than Norway spruce when the mean temperature was increased by 1, 3 and 5°c. It was concluded that Norway spruce was more likely to decline than Red pine if global warming occurs.

 
Keyword(s): CLIMATE CHANGE, GROWTH COMPARISON BETWEEN RED PINE AND NORWAY SPRUCE, PICEA ABIES, PINUS RESINOSA, SIMULATION, COMPUTER DYNAMIC GROWTH MODEL, JABOWA
 
References: 
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