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Paper Information

Journal:   DESERT (BIABAN)   2004 , Volume 9 , Number 1; Page(s) 25 To 34.
 
Paper: 

A TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL, SEASONAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER IRAN DURING THE LAST 116 YEARS

 
 
Author(s):  KHALILI A., BAZRAFSHAN JAVAD
 
* 
 
Abstract: 
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Monthly, seasonal, and annual total precipitation records of five oldest meteorological stations in Iran over the climatic period 1877-2001 are analyzed to assess the existence of a trend. These stations consisted of Bushehr, Esfahan, Tehran, Mashhad and Jask. During the First and Second World Wars, no observations in any of the above mentioned stations have beenrecorded. To reconstruct the lacuna in annual total precipitation series, the method of autocorrelation was used. The homogeneity tests for series showed that the records of the Jask station are heterogeneous and hence its data were eliminated from the trend analysis. On the other hand, the data of the other stations could be analyzed for-trend.In the next stage, some methods of trend analysis were applied to the annual, seasonal and monthly series. These methods included the Mann-Kendall test and Linear Regression Model. The obtained results indicated very limited support for the existence of trend or precipitation climate change.

 
Keyword(s): TREND ANALYSIS, PRECIPITATION,CLIMATE CHANGE, IRAN
 
References: 
  • ندارد
 
  Persian Abstract Yearly Visit 181
 
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