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Paper Information

Journal:   JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICIES   SPRING 2011 , Volume 19 , Number 57; Page(s) 171 To 198.
 
Paper: 

DEMAND FORECASTING MEDICAL EQUIPMENT BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND ARIMA METHODS

 
 
Author(s):  JAFARNEJAD AHMAD, SOLEYMANI MOHSEN
 
* 
 
Abstract: 

Health sector and its infrastructure needs in both software and hardware sector has always been emphasized. Among importance of the medical equipment and items in the health system of the country is not covered on any one. Organizations and companies active in this sector should be able to take correct decisions with regard to information in the volatile business environment today on time. Thus, estimating demand in future periods seems vital. There are various methods and tools for forecasting demand that each have advantages and disadvantage its own special. In this paper, using a multilayer neural network with two hidden layers that has been learned with genetic algorithm as the learning algorithm, the comparative system with Common method used in the prediction (Box-Jenkins Method) with model ARIMA (2, 1, 1) has been presented for the forecasting demand CT-Scan set, that According to the measure of the accuracy of models, the mean squared error (MSE), the neural network model shown of the more effectiveness and efficiency as compared to ARIMA method according to the data and information in forecasting demand CT-Scan set.

 
Keyword(s): FORECASTING DEMAND, ARIMA MODEL, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS, GENETIC ALGORITHM, MEDICAL EQUIPMENT
 
References: 
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